Here are my Week 15 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that were 17-3 in Weeks 13 & 14, 88-42 this year and 309-182-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that were 8-1 in Weeks 13 & 14, 59-19 this year and have netted a 324-126-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco
The magic number for the Rams this year is 21 points. Los Angeles is 6-0 when scoring 21 or more points versus a 1-6 record when scoring 20 or fewer points. That’s a plus trend when Matthew Stafford and company are playing as well as they are right now, as the Rams scored 44 points against a very good Bills defense last week.
The 49ers magic number is much higher. San Francisco is 5-0 when scoring 30 or more points versus a 1-7 mark when scoring fewer than 30 points. There is a path for the 49ers to hit 30+ points, as Los Angeles has allowed that many points twice in the past three weeks, but San Francisco will have to do this with either a third or fourth string running back in the lineup. Add that to Deebo Samuel’s production woes and it makes the Rams more likely to win the scoreboard shootout that this game could be.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 3
Dallas at Carolina
Mike McCarthy deserves all kinds of kudos for keeping the Cowboys effort level high after the team’s season looked to be falling apart. McCarthy is also getting Dallas back to the ground-centric approach he’s been advocating during his entire Cowboys tenure. That mindset resulted in Dallas racking up 278 yards on the ground over the past two games.
Stopping the run has been a huge issue for the Panthers. Carolina has allowed 209+ rushing yards in each of the past two games. The Panthers have also allowed 100+ rushing yards in but one game this year and have given up 165 or more rushing yards in seven of the past eight games. The Carolina offense is playing better, but not well enough to offset this huge issue, so this is a Cowboys selection.
KC’s pick: Dallas
Confidence level: 4
Kansas City at Cleveland
It’s not tough to find weaknesses on this Kansas City squad. The Chiefs don’t run the ball well, notching under 100 rush yards in four of the past five games. They don’t generate takeaways, with more than one of those in a game only once this year and only posting two in the past six weeks. Kansas City’s pass defense also has its share of subpar coverage metrics.
The Chiefs have been able to overcome these issues in large part because Patrick Mahomes has corrected the turnover issues he had earlier this season. That’s led to Kansas City posting zero giveaways in four of the past five games. That should lead to notable win in the turnover category since Jameis Winston’s penchant for throwing interceptions has led Cleveland to generate three giveaways in four of the past five games. That’s a big enough advantage to land this in the Chiefs column.
KC’s pick: Kansas City
Confidence level: 5
Miami at Houston
Mike McDaniel built his reputation via the ground game, but Miami has been very pass centric since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup in Week 8. The Dolphins have tallied 82 or fewer rushing yards in five straight games and generated 300+ net passing yards in each of the last three games. The results are hard to argue with, as Miami has scored 32+ points in three of the past four games.
That trends this game towards scoreboard shootout mode. The Texans have many talented offensive players, and the Houston pass game has been much improved following the return of Nico Collins, but the reality is the Texans are 2-5 when allowing 21 or more points this year and 6-0 when giving up 20 or fewer points. Since Miami tracks to score more than 20, this is a Dolphins pick.
KC’s pick: Miami
Confidence level: 3
New York Jets at Jacksonville
The Jets have fallen apart defensively. It’s why New York has allowed 25 or more points in six of the past seven games. Much of this is due to subpar pass coverage, as even Sauce Gardner has posted mediocre pass coverage metrics this season. That weakness has offset some solid offensive performances, with New York having scored 21 or more points in five out of the past six games.
The Jaguars defense has held its own in recent weeks (if the 52 points allowed to Detroit in Week 11 are factored out), but it’s tough to get fired out about holding the Titans to only six points last week. Jacksonville’s offense is a disaster, as the Jaguars haven’t rushed for 100+ yards since Week 7 and have scored 10 or fewer points in three of the past four games. That offensive production isn’t likely to change for the better with Mac Jones under center, so the Jets are apt to win this one.
KC’s pick: New York
Confidence level: 3
Indianapolis at Denver
Don’t let the 41-32 shootout win against Cleveland mislead regarding how well the Denver Broncos are playing of late. This team has scored 108 points over the past three weeks, allowed 77 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games and has turned the ball over only two times in the past four games. Denver is also well rested following a Week 14 bye.
The Colts had a Week 14 bye as well, so they can keep up in that department, but Indianapolis has a major rush defense weakness. The Colts just allowed New England to run for 200 yards and have allowed fewer than 122 rush yards in only three games this year. Jonathan Taylor isn’t playing as well as he did in the past and Anthony Richardson is still a work in progress. Combine those with this game being in Denver and this is a Broncos selection.
KC’s pick: Denver
Confidence level: 4
Buffalo at Detroit
There may not be a better offense in the league right now than Buffalo. The Bills have racked up 30 or more points seven straight games and posted zero or only one giveaway in all but one of those contests. That Josh Allen has been able to lead this offense here despite having a revamped receiving corps is one of many reasons he is likely to win the NFL MVP award this year.
Detroit’s offense has just as much firepower as the Bills, so this game could be a tossup if it is a shootout. Both teams likely won’t want that to be the case and will thus try to slow things down. The Lions are better suited to do that, as their rush defense hasn’t allowed more than 99 yards since Week 9 and the Bills allowed 290 yards on the ground over the past two weeks. Factor in this game being in Detroit and the Lions get the slight edge here.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 2
Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Chargers
The Week 11 bye was the best thing to happen to the Buccaneers this season. They had lost four straight and were getting into too many low percentage shootout contests that they weren’t going to be able to win without a fully healthy receiving corps.
Since then, Tampa Bay has adopted a more run-centric approach that resulted in 545 rushing yards over the past three games. That protected the defense and when that was combined with better coverage metrics and rush defense (fewer than 100 yards allowed in every game since the bye), the Buccaneers now have an approach that fits their talent base.
The Chargers had that same fit earlier this year, but following the injury to J.K. Dobbins, this team just doesn’t generate enough big plays. It’s one reason why Los Angeles has rushed for fewer than 100 yards in three straight games (an amazing feat for a Jim Harbaugh team) and scored only 34 points the past two games. Those trends are enough to give this one to Tampa Bay despite the cross-country road trip.
KC’s pick: Tampa Bay
Confidence level: 3
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
The Eagles are making it look almost too easy to gain yards on the ground. Philadelphia has generated 140 or more rushing yards in eight straight games and 200+ rush yards in five of those games. The Eagles are also elite at protecting the ball, having posted zero giveaways in seven of the past nine games (including each of the last four). Philadelphia still has the ability to throw if need be, but why do so when you can move the ball this effectively on the ground.
The Steelers have been very adept at running the ball as well with fewer than 100 rushing yards in only one game this year. Pittsburgh is also protecting the ball well, with one or zero giveaways in all but two games this year. The issue for the Steelers is they aren’t as strong as the Eagles on the ground and with George Pickens likely out of this game, they can’t go to the air with success if they need to. Those elements lean in the Eagles direction, as does home field, so this is a Philadelphia selection.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 2
Green Bay at Seattle
This game will boil down to which platoon wins the Green Bay offense versus Seattle defense battle. The Packers have scored 30+ points in three straight games, have arguably the deepest talent pool of any wide receiver corps and are getting great production out of Josh Jacobs. Green Bay also isn’t turning the ball over, with only one giveaway in those three 30+ point games.
The Seahawks defense has also turned the corner of late. Seattle is averaging just over 15 PPG allowed since the Week 10 bye and has registered six takeaways in that span. The issue for Seattle is they did this versus Arizona (a team the Seahawks match up very well against) the Jets (an inconsistent platoon) and a banged-up 49ers squad. This is the first tough test for the Seahawks defense since the bye and odds are they won’t play as well here as they have in the last four. That grants this one to Green Bay by a nominal margin.
KC’s pick: Green Bay
Confidence level: 1
Atlanta at Las Vegas
It’s amazing how quickly the Falcons season went south. Atlanta was 6-3 after nine weeks, but they’ve now lost four straight and just had what might have been the worst loss of the year in a 42-21 defeat at Minnesota. Turnovers are a huge part of the problem, with Kirk Cousins throwing eight interceptions in those four losses.
That can give the Raiders some hope considering that Las Vegas just forced three turnovers against Tampa Bay last week. Before chalking up too much credit on that, it’s worth noting that the Raiders have only five takeaways for the rest of the 2024 season. Las Vegas will be starting former Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder, which may provide some motivation for Ridder and the Falcons, but it probably won’t do much to help the dismal Silver and Black offense. These teams are both terrible right now, but the Raiders are more terrible, so go with Atlanta here.
KC’s pick: Atlanta
Confidence level: 3
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that were 8-1 in Weeks 13 & 14, 59-19 this year and 324-126-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Washington at New Orleans
Jayden Daniels fell out of the NFL MVP conversation not long after getting hurt against Chicago in Week 8, but don’t sell this Washington offense short. The Commanders have racked up 26+ points in four of the past five games and posted 875 net offensive yards over the past two weeks. The reason that hasn’t translated into more victories is Washington allowed 88 points in losses to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Dallas.
That might have presented a problem if the Saints offense was at full strength. That’s not the case, as interim coach Darren Rizzi has said Jake Haener will start this week for the injured Derek Carr. New Orleans has also lost Chris Olave, Taysom Hill and Rashid Shaheed to injury this season. That leaves very little offensive firepower to keep up with the Commanders, so grant this pick to Washington.
KC’s pick: Washington
Confidence level: 8
Baltimore at New York Giants
The Ravens are 3-3 in their last six games, but that subpar record isn’t due to a lack of offensive production. Baltimore has tallied 300 or more net offensive yards in every game this season and notched 378 rushing yards over the past two weeks. The Ravens also have no giveaways in five of their last six games and will be well rested for this matchup following a Week 14 bye.
The Giants are on an eight-game losing streak where frankly very little has gone right. There isn’t much offensive talent on this team and New York has held only three foes to fewer than 20 points. The Giants only hope is that Baltimore will look past this game, but with the Ravens recent struggles and having that Week 14 bye, an overlook is highly unlikely.
KC’s pick: Baltimore
Confidence level: 9
Cincinnati at Tennessee
Joe Burrow has thrown at least three touchdown passes in five straight games. He’s done this against Baltimore, the Chargers and Pittsburgh, so it’s not as if this is due to facing weak competition. It’s been out of necessity given how bad the Bengals defense is, but it shows any opponent better be able to keep up in a scoreboard shootout to have a chance to win versus Cincinnati.
The Titans offense has a solid amount of talent, yet the reality is that Tennessee has scored 20+ points only three times this year and scored exactly 20 points in one of those games. This will likely be a game where the Titans score 20+ points, but this offense just doesn’t have enough octane to keep up with the Bengals offense for four quarters.
KC’s pick: Cincinnati
Confidence level: 7
New England at Arizona
It wasn’t long ago that Arizona beat the Bears and Jets by a combined 60-15 score. The Cardinals were 6-4 at that point and headed into a bye, so things were looking up, but the past three weeks have been a splash of cold water with three straight losses.
Before chalking that up to Arizona being an overrated club, it’s worth noting that these losses were to Seattle (a team the Cardinals don’t match up well against) and an 11-win Minnesota squad.
That’s tough competition, but this week’s matchup against New England isn’t. The Patriots have made some offensive improvements, but this is still a team that hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a game this year and is 0-8 when allowing 23 or more points. Add that to a cross-country road trip and this projects as a Cardinals win.
KC’s pick: Arizona
Confidence level: 6
Chicago at Minnesota
So much for the Bears offensive coordinator change being the panacea for their scoring woes. Chicago generated only 13 points last week and posted an abysmal 162 offensive yards versus the 49ers. This team has rushed for more than 78 yards only once since Week 8, which means the Bears might not be able to fully benefit from a Vikings defense that has given up 312 rushing yards in the past two games.
That will be a problem versus a Minnesota squad that has posted 95 points in the past three games and just destroyed the Falcons defense to the tune of 42 points and 433 net offensive yards. Jordan Addison is finally returning to his impact ways and Sam Darnold is playing like someone who wants to keep this starting quarterback job long term. Brian Flores’ defense is also generating takeaways on a regular basis and this game is in Minnesota, so the Vikings get this pick.
KC’s pick: Minnesota
Confidence level: 6