Here are my Week 16 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that were 26-5 in Weeks 13-15, 97-44 this year and 318-184-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that were 13-1 in Weeks 13-15, 64-19 this year and have netted a 329-126-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Denver at Los Angeles Chargers
Denver’s offense struggled last week by posting only 193 net offensive yards versus a good but not great Colts defense. Even with that lack of yardage, the Broncos were still able to post 31 points. That’s a rare offensive stumble for Denver, as this is the fourth straight game they have notched 29+ points. The Broncos scored 139 points in that span and allowed only 70 points in those games, with 32 of those being scored by Cleveland in Week 13, so this club is playing very well on both sides of the ball.
That means the Chargers have dual challenges to win this game. Their defense looks to hard pressed to live up to the task, having just allowed a season high 506 offensive yards to Tampa Bay last week. The Los Angeles offense is doing even worse, which is why this club has scored 17 points in each of the past three games. Expecting one of these to go well is a low percentage play and they both could go south, so this is a Denver pick.
KC’s pick: Denver
Confidence level: 5
Houston at Kansas City
Kansas City used to have a success formula of elite passing from Patrick Mahomes and a stout defense. Their formula has changed of late. On offense, it’s a matter of not turning the ball over, with Kansas City having zero giveaways in five of the past six games. On defense, it’s a bend but don’t break approach that held the Raiders, Chargers and Browns to a total of 41 points over the past three games.
Those approaches might not work against Houston. The Texans defense excels at taking the ball away, as this platoon is on a nine-game streak with at least on takeaway and 25 takeaways in that span. Houston’s offense has also been very consistent, which has led to the Texans scoring 20+ points in five straight games.
The key may be if the Chiefs can score 21 or more points. Houston is 2-5 when that happens, versus 7-0 when allowing 20 or fewer points. Kansas City has scored 20 or fewer points in two of the past three games and has scored 21 or fewer in five of the past six. This all gives the Texans many paths to victory, so this goes to Houston, but by a very small margin.
KC’s pick: Houston
Confidence level: 1
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Baltimore’s big problem this year has been defense. That platoon has been a coverage sieve far too often this year, which is why the Ravens are 0-5 when scoring 24 or fewer points this season. The good news for Baltimore is that this group has been playing much better of late, including in the Week 11 game against Pittsburgh when the Ravens allowed only 18 points.
Pittsburgh’s defense has seen some of those same issues this year, but the timing for the Steelers is much worse since those issues have been happening in recent weeks. Pittsburgh has allowed 24+ points in three of the past four games and looked subpar versus the run and pass against Cincinnati and Philadelphia.
The Ravens would have won the game in Week 11 had it not been for some kicking game struggles. With the way these defenses have been playing, and with the game in Baltimore, this is a Ravens selection.
KC’s pick: Baltimore
Confidence level: 2
Arizona at Carolina
The Cardinals started last week on a three-game losing streak, but that was due in large part to unfavorable matchups. When Arizona got a more favorable matchup against New England, the Cardinals showed they are still the team that had won five out of six at one point to become an NFC West division contender.
This week’s matchup has a similar look to last week. Carolina has been playing much better in recent weeks, but the Panthers seemed to run out of gas versus the Cowboys. That type of thing tends to carry over from one week to the next, and when that is combined with the Cardinals trend, this one lands in Arizona’s column.
KC’s pick: Arizona
Confidence level: 4
Tennessee at Indianapolis
This is one of the tougher games to pick on the Week 16 schedule. Both teams have been terrible in terms of turning the ball, as these clubs combined to post 11 giveaways in Week 15. The Titans just made a quarterback change to journeyman Mason Rudolph, but the Colts aren’t doing much better while suffering through the growing pains of Anthony Richardson’s passing skills.
The Colts have more to play for. More specifically, Jonathan Taylor will be fired up to do something to make people forget about his goal line fumble gaffe last week. Combine those with home field and this leans towards an Indianapolis win.
KC’s pick: Indianapolis
Confidence level: 2
Philadelphia at Washington
The past three weeks show that Jayden Daniels is finally over the rib injury he suffered in the Week 8 game against Chicago. Daniels has thrown for over 700 yards and seven touchdowns while also rushing for 174 yards and two touchdowns. This is a major factor in Washington winning two of its past three games and gives the Commanders a chance at the upset.
The caveat here is that two of those games were against Tennessee and New Orleans. The Eagles have more talent than both of those teams combined. Philadelphia also showed last week that it can throw the ball very adeptly even when facing a strong pass coverage group. The Commanders coverage metrics indicate they are anything but a strong coverage group. That gives the Eagles many more paths to victory and lands them this selection.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 4
Minnesota at Seattle
Mike Macdonald’s team is playing much better of late, but let’s not forget that he wants the Seahawks to be an old school Jim Harbaugh-like team that runs the ball well and stops the run. Seattle isn’t doing either, having allowed 161 yards on the ground over the past two weeks and rushing for 100+ yards only once in the past five games.
Kevin O’Connell wants to mimic Sean McVay’s approach and win games via a powerhouse offense. The Vikings have been doing that by scoring 23+ points five straight games and generating 72 points over the past two weeks. That’s not a good trend for Seattle since the Seahawks are 0-6 this year when allowing 26 or more points, so check this one off for Minnesota.
KC’s pick: Minnesota
Confidence level: 4
Jacksonville at Las Vegas
Mac Jones isn’t a starting-caliber NFL quarterback, but let’s not overlook how Jacksonville’s offense has done over the past three weeks with Jones under center. The Titans game was a dud, but the Jaguars racked up 421 net offensive yards and posted 25 points against the Jets last week and tallied 373 offensive yards and put up 20 points against the Texans in Week 13.
The Raiders have been somewhat comparable in offensive yards over the past few weeks, but Las Vegas has scored 19 or fewer points in five straight games and just notched a season low nine points against Atlanta.
These show that it is easier to trust Jacksonville’s ability to score points right now, so the Jaguars are the pick.
KC’s pick: Jacksonville
Confidence level: 3
San Francisco at Miami
The 49ers are dealing with more than a few injuries on offense, but that doesn’t explain just how poorly this platoon has been playing. San Francisco has scored 17 or fewer points in four of the past five games, and ten or fewer points in three of the past four games. Deebo Samuel is non-startable in fantasy football (he’s scored only 23.6 PPR points over the past five games) and the 49ers may have to start fourth string running back Patrick Taylor this week.
Miami’s had some issues of its own, having tallied only 17 points against Green Bay in Week 13 and only 12 points last week against Houston, but the Dolphins have racked up 32+ points in three of the past five weeks. That shows Miami still has an offense it can count on more times than not, and it gets them this pick.
KC’s pick: Miami
Confidence level: 4
Tampa Bay at Dallas
A strong case can be made that the Cowboys offense is playing better with Cooper Rush at quarterback than it did before Dak Prescott got hurt. Dallas has posted 111 points over the past four games, with 27+ points in three of those, and has five straight games with 300+ net offensive yards. A good portion of that is due to Rush, but the Cowboys have also notched 489 rushing yards in the past three games.
As great as the Dallas offense has been, the Tampa Bay offense has been even better. The Buccaneers have scored 124 points over the past four games and have racked up 420 or more net offensive yards in each of those games. The Tampa Bay ground attack has been putting up awe-inspiring numbers, with 150+ yards in those four games and a total of 767 yards in that quartet of contests.
Those both suggest that this game will go the scoreboard shootout route. Combine that with the Tampa Bay defense playing much better of late and this is a Buccaneers pick.
KC’s pick: Tampa Bay
Confidence level: 4
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that were 13-1 in Weeks 13-15, 64-19 this year and 329-126-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
New York Giants at Atlanta
The Falcons really had no choice but to bench Kirk Cousins. Atlanta had lost four out of five games and scored 72 points in that five-game span and 15 or fewer points in three of the previous four games. The one consistent bright spot for the Falcons in those games and more is Bijan Robinson, who has posted over 100 scrimmage yards in eight of Atlanta’s last nine games.
Robinson gets a hugely favorable matchup against a Giants defense that has allowed 149 or more rushing yards in six of the past eight games. New York has next to nothing on offense and thus cannot offset Robinson, so Atlanta gets this pick.
KC’s pick: Atlanta
Confidence level: 8
Detroit at Chicago
The Lions defensive injuries are finally catching up to them. It’s a big part of why Green Bay and Buffalo combined to score 79 points against Detroit over the past two weeks. The Lions have also generated only one takeaway in the past four games. Those injury woes have also hit the Detroit offense, with David Montgomery likely out for the season with an MCL injury.
That might present a problem if the Lions were facing a powerhouse offense. That isn’t the case versus a Bears squad that is 0-9 when allowing 19 or more points this season. Detroit has scored less than 20 points only once this year, that being all the way back in Week 2, so the Lions should generate more than enough points to prevent the Bears from keeping pace.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 8
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Joe Burrow has been angry for weeks at how the Bengals season has progressed. He’s been taking that anger out on opposing defenses to the tune of three or more touchdown passes in six straight games. That’s the main reason Cincinnati has scored 27+ points in six consecutive contests, and it trends the Bengals to do the same in this contest.
Cleveland had to finally give up on the Jameis Winston experiment following four straight games with three or more giveaways, including six in last week’s loss versus Kansas City. Dorian Thompson-Robinson should improve the turnover pace, but it’s a lot to ask him to keep up with Burrow and company on the road, so this selection goes to Cincinnati.
KC’s pick: Cincinnati
Confidence level: 7
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
The Jets team was built with defense, a strong run game and vertical passing in mind. After Robert Saleh’s departure, this club has shifted away from that and towards scoreboard shootout mode. This is why over the past four games New York has scored 106 points and allowed 111 points. The problem for the Jets is that they are 1-3 in those games, with the only victory being a 32-25 win over a Jacksonville squad with Mac Jones at quarterback.
The Rams didn’t do much offensively last week, but they are only two weeks removed from putting up 44 points against a very good Buffalo Bills defense. Los Angeles is also 6-0 when scoring 21 or more points. That means the Rams are even more comfortable with a high scoring approach than the Jets are and thus get this pick.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 6
New England at Buffalo
This is the type of matchup that could lend itself to being a trap game for Buffalo. It has all the hallmarks. The Bills have the AFC East wrapped up. It’s a game against an overmatched foe. Kansas City may be out of reach for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Buffalo just won a highly emotional road game against a powerhouse team.
In some scenarios that would lead to an upset, but the Bills have many things going for them. The Patriots are in some ways their most bitter rival. New England got an upset win over Buffalo last year. Trap games normally occur when a team is looking forward to a huge matchup, but the Bills next two games after this are against the Jets and Patriots. Kansas City also has a tough three-game slate, so Buffalo may have multiple chances to catch up.
The Bills may also want to push the Chiefs to keep having to start Patrick Mahomes even when rest might seem like the best thing for him. Those are enough motivating factors to overcome the trap game scenario.
KC’s pick: Buffalo
Confidence level: 9
New Orleans at Green Bay
It speaks volumes for how good Matt LaFleur is at his job that the Packers have scored 30 or more points in four straight games, and yet the Green Bay offense has many areas in which it can improve its performance. LaFleur also excels at improving his teams as the season progresses, which means that the Packers offense could be even better by the time the postseason starts. The Green Bay defense is also on an upswing, posting takeaways in four straight games after not posting any for three out of the four previous contests.
Darren Rizzi deserves a ton of credit for getting the Saints to play with a ton of effort after the season went south following seven straight losses. That’s admirable, but it’s nowhere near enough to garner a win considering that New Orleans will have Spencer Rattler at quarterback and won’t have Alvin Kamara in the backfield.
KC’s pick: Green Bay
Confidence level: 9