Here are my Week 18 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 110-52 this year and 331-192-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that were 23-2 in Weeks 13-17, 74-20 this year and have netted a 339-127-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
What happened to the Colts last week in the embarrassing loss to the lowly Giants is something that is all but certain to have long-term implications on this franchise. That will almost certainly have an impact on how this team plays in the last game of the season, especially considering the uncertainty at who will play at quarterback this week.
The Jaguars are still giving ample effort for Doug Pederson, having won two of their last four games. Jacksonville also has something of a jinx over Indianapolis, registering five wins in the last six matchups. The projection here is that these contrasting effort levels will lead to a Jaguars victory.
KC’s pick: Jacksonville
Confidence level: 3
Buffalo at New England
This is a tough game to call. Josh Allen will start the game to keep his consecutive starts streak going, and Buffalo will probably play its starters for a drive or two, but after that it will be rest time to get ready for the playoffs.
It’s tough to tell how motivated the Patriots will be, as there has been speculation that Jerod Mayo’s job may be in jeopardy. Even if Mayo is to be fired, the players know they will be playing to keep their jobs with the next coaching staff. It’s also a home game for New England, so the Patriots are the pick by a small margin.
KC’s pick: New England
Confidence level: 1
New York Giants at Philadelphia
Last week, Brian Daboll made Drew Lock look like Drew Brees versus a weak Colts defense. The Giants have not lacked for motivation under Daboll, who very well may keep his job even after the 2024 season debacle, as the sky could be the limit if New York gives him a good quarterback.
That’s a plus formula for the G-Men versus an Eagles team that won’t be playing Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts and will almost certainly give limited playing time to other star players. Add it up and the Giants are the percentage play.
KC’s pick: New York
Confidence level: 3
Houston at Tennessee
DeMeco Ryans is insisting that the Texans starters will play at least part of the game this week even though Houston has nothing to play for AFC seeding-wise. The reason Ryans wants to do this is that the Texans were terrible last week against Baltimore, and he wants to reset the team’s psyche headed into the postseason.
What that will likely result in is Houston playing well for a drive or three and then calling it a day. The question is whether Tennessee will be able to overcome that while rotating its quarterbacks. The quarterback rotation is not a plus sign to a team, so the answer is likely no, and that results in Houston getting this pick.
KC’s pick: Houston
Confidence level: 1
San Francisco at Arizona
Before getting too fired up about how well San Francisco's offense played in the Monday night game against Detroit, note that the Lions defense gets into way too many scoreboard shootouts. The Cardinals defense is not great, but Arizona has allowed 17 or fewer points in three of the past six games. Combine that with the 49ers not having Brock Purdy under center in this game and it may lead to a reversion to the subpar point totals San Francisco was posting before the MNF contest.
Arizona is a very well-coached team, as the Cardinals players have consistently given a high effort level to Jonathan Gannon, so motivation won't be a factor here. Arizona will be without James Conner, but they still have the big-play ability of Kyler Murray and will be at home, so this one goes into the Cardinals column.
KC’s pick: Arizona
Confidence level: 2
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas
Jim Harbaugh has publicly stated that the Chargers want to play for the No. 5 seed, a spot they will get if Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and Los Angeles wins this game. Harbaugh will also take a division battle quite seriously and almost certainly wants to give J.K. Dobbins another opportunity to get back to full speed following his return from injury.
The Raiders have been struggling and are reportedly considering making another head coaching change. It’s possible Pittsburgh wins its game and motivates the Chargers to play backups, but the percentage play still say Los Angeles goes all out to win and does so.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 5
Miami at New York Jets
It’s obviously a negative for Miami to not have Tua Tagovailoa available this week, but the Dolphins do have an ace in the hole in that Mike McDaniel is a fantastic run play caller. He’s not used that skill nearly as much when Tagovailoa has been healthy this year, but with Tyler Huntley operating the offense, McDaniel will utilize Huntley’s rushing ability and the vast skills of De’Von Achane.
The Jets last week looked like a team ready to go home. Aaron Rodgers will aim to build some stats in this one, but beyond that New York may just go through the motions in this one.
KC’s pick: Miami
Confidence level: 5
Minnesota at Detroit
It doesn’t get any better than this, as the Vikings and Lions are playing for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the conference.
No offense is playing as well as Detroit’s right now. The Lions have scored 34+ points in each of the past four games and has turned the ball over twice in that span. That’s a continuation of Detroit’s success formula all year long, as the Lions have scored 31+ points nine times and have only three giveaways in those contests.
The 30-point mark is a key one given the Vikings track record this year. Minnesota is 14-0 when allowing fewer than 30 points and 0-2 when giving up 30 or more. The caveat here is that the Vikings have forced at least one giveaway in every game this year, so it is possible Brian Flores’ defense changes the Lions winning dynamic, but the trends still send this pick in Detroit’s direction.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 3
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that were 23-2 in Weeks 13-17, 74-20 this year and 339-127-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.