Here are my Week 18 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 110-52 this year and 331-192-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that were 23-2 in Weeks 13-17, 74-20 this year and have netted a 339-127-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

What happened to the Colts last week in the embarrassing loss to the lowly Giants is something that is all but certain to have long-term implications on this franchise. That will almost certainly have an impact on how this team plays in the last game of the season, especially considering the uncertainty at who will play at quarterback this week.

The Jaguars are still giving ample effort for Doug Pederson, having won two of their last four games. Jacksonville also has something of a jinx over Indianapolis, registering five wins in the last six matchups. The projection here is that these contrasting effort levels will lead to a Jaguars victory.

KC’s pick: Jacksonville

Confidence level: 3

Buffalo at New England

This is a tough game to call. Josh Allen will start the game to keep his consecutive starts streak going, and Buffalo will probably play its starters for a drive or two, but after that it will be rest time to get ready for the playoffs.

It’s tough to tell how motivated the Patriots will be, as there has been speculation that Jerod Mayo’s job may be in jeopardy. Even if Mayo is to be fired, the players know they will be playing to keep their jobs with the next coaching staff. It’s also a home game for New England, so the Patriots are the pick by a small margin.

KC’s pick: New England

Confidence level: 1

New York Giants at Philadelphia

Last week, Brian Daboll made Drew Lock look like Drew Brees versus a weak Colts defense. The Giants have not lacked for motivation under Daboll, who very well may keep his job even after the 2024 season debacle, as the sky could be the limit if New York gives him a good quarterback.

That’s a plus formula for the G-Men versus an Eagles team that won’t be playing Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts and will almost certainly give limited playing time to other star players. Add it up and the Giants are the percentage play.

KC’s pick: New York

Confidence level: 3

Houston at Tennessee

DeMeco Ryans is insisting that the Texans starters will play at least part of the game this week even though Houston has nothing to play for AFC seeding-wise. The reason Ryans wants to do this is that the Texans were terrible last week against Baltimore, and he wants to reset the team’s psyche headed into the postseason.

What that will likely result in is Houston playing well for a drive or three and then calling it a day. The question is whether Tennessee will be able to overcome that while rotating its quarterbacks. The quarterback rotation is not a plus sign to a team, so the answer is likely no, and that results in Houston getting this pick.

KC’s pick: Houston

Confidence level: 1

San Francisco at Arizona

Before getting too fired up about how well San Francisco's offense played in the Monday night game against Detroit, note that the Lions defense gets into way too many scoreboard shootouts. The Cardinals defense is not great, but Arizona has allowed 17 or fewer points in three of the past six games. Combine that with the 49ers not having Brock Purdy under center in this game and it may lead to a reversion to the subpar point totals San Francisco was posting before the MNF contest.

Arizona is a very well-coached team, as the Cardinals players have consistently given a high effort level to Jonathan Gannon, so motivation won't be a factor here. Arizona will be without James Conner, but they still have the big-play ability of Kyler Murray and will be at home, so this one goes into the Cardinals column.

KC’s pick: Arizona

Confidence level: 2

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas

Jim Harbaugh has publicly stated that the Chargers want to play for the No. 5 seed, a spot they will get if Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati and Los Angeles wins this game. Harbaugh will also take a division battle quite seriously and almost certainly wants to give J.K. Dobbins another opportunity to get back to full speed following his return from injury.

The Raiders have been struggling and are reportedly considering making another head coaching change. It’s possible Pittsburgh wins its game and motivates the Chargers to play backups, but the percentage play still say Los Angeles goes all out to win and does so.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 5

Miami at New York Jets

It’s obviously a negative for Miami to not have Tua Tagovailoa available this week, but the Dolphins do have an ace in the hole in that Mike McDaniel is a fantastic run play caller. He’s not used that skill nearly as much when Tagovailoa has been healthy this year, but with Tyler Huntley operating the offense, McDaniel will utilize Huntley’s rushing ability and the vast skills of De’Von Achane.

The Jets last week looked like a team ready to go home. Aaron Rodgers will aim to build some stats in this one, but beyond that New York may just go through the motions in this one.

KC’s pick: Miami

Confidence level: 5

Minnesota at Detroit

It doesn’t get any better than this, as the Vikings and Lions are playing for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the conference.

No offense is playing as well as Detroit’s right now. The Lions have scored 34+ points in each of the past four games and has turned the ball over twice in that span. That’s a continuation of Detroit’s success formula all year long, as the Lions have scored 31+ points nine times and have only three giveaways in those contests.

The 30-point mark is a key one given the Vikings track record this year. Minnesota is 14-0 when allowing fewer than 30 points and 0-2 when giving up 30 or more. The caveat here is that the Vikings have forced at least one giveaway in every game this year, so it is possible Brian Flores’ defense changes the Lions winning dynamic, but the trends still send this pick in Detroit’s direction.

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 3

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that were 23-2 in Weeks 13-17, 74-20 this year and 339-127-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Cleveland at Baltimore

Baltimore has been arguably the best team in the NFL since its Week 14 bye. The Ravens have outscored their opponents by a 100-33 margin that could have been even greater had Baltimore not taken its foot off the gas while coasting to victories.

The Browns are on the flip side of that coin, having lost the last three games by a margin of 16-65. Cleveland has scored seven, six and three points over the past three games, and nothing from Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s performance last week suggests that will change. Add in the Ravens clinching the AFC North title with a win here and this game being in Baltimore and this is about as slam dunk as picks get.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 10

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Joe Burrow is having one of the greatest passing streaks in NFL history. He’s thrown three or more touchdown passes in eight straight games, a pace that is tied for third best all time. The Bengals also need this win to stay in the playoff hunt and are facing a Pittsburgh defense that has been close to abysmal in pass coverage of late.

The Steelers offense might be able to keep up in a shootout, but Pittsburgh’s only motivation outside of pride is winning the AFC North with a victory here and a Baltimore loss. Since the Ravens are all but certain to win their game against Cleveland, the Steelers won't have that motivation. Add it up and this one goes to the Bengals by a solid margin.

KC’s pick: Cincinnati

Confidence level: 6

Carolina at Atlanta

The Falcons are a longshot to win the NFC South, as they need a victory here and a Buccaneers loss versus the Saints, but since Tampa Bay doesn’t play until the late afternoon window (this game is in the early window), Atlanta will have a lot to play for. That’s a big plus for a ground game that has been spectacular, as Bijan Robinson would likely be recognized as the best running back in the league if not for the presence of Saquon Barkley.

The Panthers had a strong run game with Chuba Hubbard, but he’s now on IR. Dave Canales has this team playing with a lot of effort, but the talent disparity, playoff motivation for the Falcons and this game being in Atlanta lead to the Falcons getting this one.

KC’s pick: Atlanta

Confidence level: 7

Washington at Dallas

Jayden Daniels hit the rookie wall after getting a rib injury in the Week 8 game against Chicago. He’s been playing better after getting healthy and picking up a second wind, and over the past three weeks Daniels has been arguably as good as any quarterback in the NFL. That’s a huge plus for a Washington team that could move up in the NFC playoff seeding with a win and a Los Angeles loss. Since the Rams have announced they are sitting their starters, the Commanders won’t lack for motivation.

Dallas had been playing much better of late, but last week saw the offense fall apart without CeeDee Lamb and the defense revert to the error prone ways from earlier this year. That’s not a formula for success for the Cowboys, so this is a Washington selection.

KC’s pick: Washington

Confidence level: 6

Chicago at Green Bay

If the Packers win and Washington loses, Green Bay will play at the Rams in the first round of the playoffs. If the Packers lose, they will be the No. 7 seed and play at Philadelphia. Since the former is preferable to the latter, Green Bay is all but certain to go all out to win this one.

Chicago’s offense saw a bit of a turnaround with the offensive play calling change at midseason, but things have regressed since then with the Bears scoring only 45 points over the past four weeks combined. Add those to this game being at Lambeau Field and it’s a heavy lean in Green Bay’s direction.

KC’s pick: Green Bay

Confidence level: 8

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers offense hit a proverbial pothole earlier this year when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were both lost to injury. Once Evans returned, this offense started to flourish again and that’s been the case even more following the development of Jalen McMillan into an impact pass catcher the past few weeks. Tampa Bay also arguably has the best rushing attack in the league over the past six weeks.

The Saints might get Derek Carr and Chris Olave back this week. Even if that happens, Carr and Olave will both be dealing with injury rust. Combine that with Alvin Kamara dealing with a groin injury and the Buccaneers rush defense playing lights out of late (70 yards allowed over the past two weeks) and this one easily goes to Tampa Bay.

KC’s pick: Tampa Bay

Confidence level: 8

Kansas City at Denver

Andy Reid has shown throughout the years that he has no hesitation in resting starters for the playoffs. That means Kansas City will have backups galore on the field for this matchup.

Denver is in a win-and-in playoff situation, so the Broncos will be going all out to win. That’s a formula for success for Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton and when the home-field is added, it’s an easy Broncos pick.

KC’s pick: Denver

Confidence level: 8

Seattle at Los Angeles Rams

Mike Macdonald has the Seahawks headed in the right direction, as over the past few weeks Seattle started playing the caliber of defense and the type of offense Macdonald wanted to implement from day one. The Seahawks aren’t making the playoffs, but with that type of momentum going on, Macdonald will want to keep that going headed into the postseason.

The Rams have made the playoffs, and Sean McVay has already indicated that Matthew Stafford will not play in this game and many other starters will have zero or limited playing time. Merge that with Seattle’s approach and it lands this pick on the Seattle side.

KC’s pick: Seattle

Confidence level: 8