Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 1. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that were 9-2 last week and are 230-144-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that were 4-1 last week and have netted a 269-108-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Buffalo at Miami
Buffalo did a great job coming back to win after falling behind 17-3 late in the second quarter against Arizona, but the fact that the Bills were in a closely contested battle shows just how much talent Buffalo lost this offseason.
The Dolphins showed just as much moxie coming back from their 17-7 home deficit, but they also did this versus a Jacksonville team that is a playoff-caliber squad. Miami also has many more big play offensive players than Buffalo does, and this is a short week road game for the Bills, so Miami is the pick.
KC’s pick: Miami
Confidence level: 3
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Baker Mayfield is finally living up to his initial draft expectations, as he is a perfect fit for the Buccaneers offense. The team has more than enough faith in him to go after defensive coverage weaknesses and that led to Mayfield throwing for four touchdowns last week against a terrible Washington secondary.
The Lions secondary is still not very good, so Mayfield could have another strong day, but Detroit now has one more impact player on its roster, as Jameson Williams finally starting showcasing his elite skills. That gives the Lions an edge in what should be a shootout, and when that is added to home field, it means this one lands in Detroit’s column.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 3
Indianapolis at Green Bay
Green Bay’s trip Brazil was a disaster, as the team not only lost to the Eagles in a game the Packers could have won, but Green Bay also looks like it lost Jordan Love for at least a few weeks to an MCL injury. The bright spot for this matchup is the Packers did show they can run the ball, and the Colts have a terrible run defense, so Josh Jacobs should still have a big game.
The issue for the Packers is that they are just as bad at stopping the run as the Colts are. That’s a huge impediment when facing Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson and since Richardson showed he can also hit long passes, it’s enough big play ability to give this one to Indianapolis by a small margin.
KC’s pick: Indianapolis
Confidence level: 2
Cleveland at Jacksonville
The Jaguars had a bitterly disappointing loss last week, but they can solace in the idea that they now have the makings of a solid two-back backfield, and that they held a powerhouse Miami squad to only 20 points.
The Browns will find it much more difficult to take solace from their loss to Dallas, as the Cowboys illustrated that Cleveland is a flawed squad. The Browns also are now dealing with the off-field issues for Deshaun Watson and seem to be a distracted franchise. Combine that with the penchant of many teams not taking a Jacksonville road trip as seriously as they should, and this one goes to the Jaguars.
KC’s pick: Jacksonville
Confidence level: 4
San Francisco at Minnesota
Sam Darnold has been a disappointment at the pro level, but he’s now with a team that has a great play caller, one of the top wide receivers in the league and plenty of other offensive talent. All he has to do is be a solid player and the Vikings have the capacity to post convincing wins over subpar foes as they did last week in their 28-6 win over the Giants.
That formula won’t work this week, as the 49ers have a great play caller, a quarterback who is a great fit for this system, and arguably the best set of offensive talent in the NFL. They can win even if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t play, but if he does this goes from a confidence level of 4 to a confidence level of 7.
KC’s pick: San Francisco
Confidence level: 4 if CMC is out, 7 if he plays
Seattle at New England
New England won at Cincinnati for many reasons, but the main one is that they did just like they used to do in the Bill Belichick days and found ways to exploit many of the Bengals personnel weaknesses.
That should lead to a big game from Rhamondre Stevenson, as the Seahawks have a subpar rush defense, but let’s not forget that the Bengals were dealing with injuries and other issues. Seattle is not, so the Seahawks have more offensive firepower than Cincinnati did and thus should succeed where Cincinnati failed and win this contest.
KC’s pick: Seattle
Confidence level: 3
New York Jets at Tennessee
The Monday night game did not go as hoped for Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets, but let’s be realistic about this – there are few teams in the league capable of going on the road against the 49ers and coming back with a victory.
This week will be more of an indicator of how good New York is, especially when this defense faces the overmatched Will Levis. He faltered badly last week versus a strong Bears defense and this week shouldn’t be any different, so take the Jets in this one.
KC’s pick: New York
Confidence level: 5
New York Giants at Washington
Jayden Daniels didn’t lead the Commanders to a Week 1 win at the Giants, but he did rush for 88 yards and two touchdowns and had an impressive 93.1 passer rating versus a solid Tampa Bay defense.
That may already give Washington a quarterback edge, as Daniel Jones, who rushed for only 15 yards on six carries and had a dismal 44.3 passer rating last week, may be fighting for his job soon enough. That gives the Commanders a playmaking edge and when that is merged with the home field advantage, it’s a Washington selection.
KC’s pick: Washington
Confidence level: 2
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona
The Rams went into the Sunday Night Football game at Detroit with plenty of injuries and then added to them throughout that contest, yet still managed to nearly pull off the road upset. That speaks volumes for Sean McVay’s coaching, but it also says the talent drop off for this club isn’t as significant as generally thought.
The Cardinals showed that they aren’t far from being a much better team, having nearly claimed a road victory over the Bills, but Arizona still has a huge problem in that Kyler Murray may be the worst vertical passer in the league. That’s a major impediment that may be enough to give the Rams both the offensive firepower edge here and the pick.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 1
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 269-108-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.