Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 1. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that were 9-2 last week and are 230-144-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that were 4-1 last week and have netted a 269-108-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Buffalo at Miami
Buffalo did a great job coming back to win after falling behind 17-3 late in the second quarter against Arizona, but the fact that the Bills were in a closely contested battle shows just how much talent Buffalo lost this offseason.
The Dolphins showed just as much moxie coming back from their 17-7 home deficit, but they also did this versus a Jacksonville team that is a playoff-caliber squad. Miami also has many more big play offensive players than Buffalo does, and this is a short week road game for the Bills, so Miami is the pick.
KC’s pick: Miami
Confidence level: 3
Tampa Bay at Detroit
Baker Mayfield is finally living up to his initial draft expectations, as he is a perfect fit for the Buccaneers offense. The team has more than enough faith in him to go after defensive coverage weaknesses and that led to Mayfield throwing for four touchdowns last week against a terrible Washington secondary.
The Lions secondary is still not very good, so Mayfield could have another strong day, but Detroit now has one more impact player on its roster, as Jameson Williams finally starting showcasing his elite skills. That gives the Lions an edge in what should be a shootout, and when that is added to home field, it means this one lands in Detroit’s column.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 3
Indianapolis at Green Bay
Green Bay’s trip Brazil was a disaster, as the team not only lost to the Eagles in a game the Packers could have won, but Green Bay also looks like it lost Jordan Love for at least a few weeks to an MCL injury. The bright spot for this matchup is the Packers did show they can run the ball, and the Colts have a terrible run defense, so Josh Jacobs should still have a big game.
The issue for the Packers is that they are just as bad at stopping the run as the Colts are. That’s a huge impediment when facing Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson and since Richardson showed he can also hit long passes, it’s enough big play ability to give this one to Indianapolis by a small margin.
KC’s pick: Indianapolis
Confidence level: 2
Cleveland at Jacksonville
The Jaguars had a bitterly disappointing loss last week, but they can solace in the idea that they now have the makings of a solid two-back backfield, and that they held a powerhouse Miami squad to only 20 points.
The Browns will find it much more difficult to take solace from their loss to Dallas, as the Cowboys illustrated that Cleveland is a flawed squad. The Browns also are now dealing with the off-field issues for Deshaun Watson and seem to be a distracted franchise. Combine that with the penchant of many teams not taking a Jacksonville road trip as seriously as they should, and this one goes to the Jaguars.
KC’s pick: Jacksonville
Confidence level: 4
San Francisco at Minnesota
Sam Darnold has been a disappointment at the pro level, but he’s now with a team that has a great play caller, one of the top wide receivers in the league and plenty of other offensive talent. All he has to do is be a solid player and the Vikings have the capacity to post convincing wins over subpar foes as they did last week in their 28-6 win over the Giants.
That formula won’t work this week, as the 49ers have a great play caller, a quarterback who is a great fit for this system, and arguably the best set of offensive talent in the NFL. They can win even if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t play, but if he does this goes from a confidence level of 4 to a confidence level of 7.
KC’s pick: San Francisco
Confidence level: 4 if CMC is out, 7 if he plays
Seattle at New England
New England won at Cincinnati for many reasons, but the main one is that they did just like they used to do in the Bill Belichick days and found ways to exploit many of the Bengals personnel weaknesses.
That should lead to a big game from Rhamondre Stevenson, as the Seahawks have a subpar rush defense, but let’s not forget that the Bengals were dealing with injuries and other issues. Seattle is not, so the Seahawks have more offensive firepower than Cincinnati did and thus should succeed where Cincinnati failed and win this contest.
KC’s pick: Seattle
Confidence level: 3
New York Jets at Tennessee
The Monday night game did not go as hoped for Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets, but let’s be realistic about this – there are few teams in the league capable of going on the road against the 49ers and coming back with a victory.
This week will be more of an indicator of how good New York is, especially when this defense faces the overmatched Will Levis. He faltered badly last week versus a strong Bears defense and this week shouldn’t be any different, so take the Jets in this one.
KC’s pick: New York
Confidence level: 5
New York Giants at Washington
Jayden Daniels didn’t lead the Commanders to a Week 1 win at the Giants, but he did rush for 88 yards and two touchdowns and had an impressive 93.1 passer rating versus a solid Tampa Bay defense.
That may already give Washington a quarterback edge, as Daniel Jones, who rushed for only 15 yards on six carries and had a dismal 44.3 passer rating last week, may be fighting for his job soon enough. That gives the Commanders a playmaking edge and when that is merged with the home field advantage, it’s a Washington selection.
KC’s pick: Washington
Confidence level: 2
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona
The Rams went into the Sunday Night Football game at Detroit with plenty of injuries and then added to them throughout that contest, yet still managed to nearly pull off the road upset. That speaks volumes for Sean McVay’s coaching, but it also says the talent drop off for this club isn’t as significant as generally thought.
The Cardinals showed that they aren’t far from being a much better team, having nearly claimed a road victory over the Bills, but Arizona still has a huge problem in that Kyler Murray may be the worst vertical passer in the league. That’s a major impediment that may be enough to give the Rams both the offensive firepower edge here and the pick.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 1
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 269-108-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Las Vegas at Baltimore
The Raiders looked like they were carrying over the momentum gained when Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach last year when they got out to a 7-3 late first quarter lead against the Chargers, but Jim Harbaugh’s power-centric approach then took over and Los Angeles outscored Las Vegas 19-3 after that.
This is a problem when facing a Ravens team that is angry about losing a close game at Kansas City. The Raiders didn’t handle that power approach well last week and the Silver and Black aren’t likely to fare much better this week versus Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, so take Baltimore in this one.
KC’s pick: Baltimore
Confidence level: 7
Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina
Last week, this article series pointed out that Carolina should not have been only a four-point underdog at New Orleans, as that number implied that the Saints, a team that has borderline playoff-caliber talent, would only be a one-point favorite on a neutral field.
That mismatch resulted in a 47-10 loss for the Panthers, and this week’s matchup against the Chargers is just as one-sided. Don’t look for a 37-point loss and do expect the Panthers to play better at home, but Los Angeles should still win this one handily.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 8
New Orleans at Dallas
The Saints had the most lopsided win of Week 1, a 47-10 triumph over an incredibly overmatched Panthers squad, but the reality is New Orleans is nowhere near as good as that score would indicate.
Dallas doesn’t have much in the way of depth, but their dominant road win over a playoff-caliber roster like Cleveland shows that when this team is healthy, it can dominate just about any squad in the league. That list includes the Saints, so Dallas lands this selection.
KC’s pick: Dallas
Confidence level: 6
Pittsburgh at Denver
John Madden used to say that if a team had two quarterbacks, they really had none since it meant neither quarterback was good enough to be a starter. That’s the case in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers also know how to win with a ground game, a tough defense, and strong special teams, which is exactly what they did last week to win against Atlanta. The biggest plus there is defense, as the Falcons shaky offensive line just couldn’t hold up against the Steelers pass rush.
Bo Nix was at one point on track to have one of the worst rookie starts since the AFL-NFL merger and his final numbers weren’t much better. The Broncos can’t give him much support in the receiving corps, and their ground game is mediocre. Denver’s defense may be able to keep this game close for a time, but in the end it won’t be enough to offset that awful offense.
KC’s pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence level: 7
Cincinnati at Kansas City
The Bengals have all manner of built-in excuses for last week’s performance, as they can blame overturned touchdowns, bad ball security, food poisoning, Joe Burrow’s wrist, or Tee Higgins injury absence, but the reality is that this team just may not be as good as it was during its Super Bowl run a couple of years ago.
The Chiefs have no such issue, as they found ways to once again deal with the bully on the block football that Baltimore excels at. Kansas City will have to use a different approach in this contest, but with the Bengals likely needing to hit the restart button, the Chiefs should win this one by a solid margin.
KC’s pick: Kansas City
Confidence level: 6
Houston at Chicago
Give Chicago credit, as the Bears turned a game in which their offense generated only 148 total net yards into a 24-17 victory on the strength of a blocked punt return for a touchdown and a pick six.
That latter score was the result of an incredibly bad decision by Tennessee quarterback Will Levis, but that’s not the type of error that C.J. Stroud is going to make. Combine that with Houston having arguably the best set of skill position players in the NFL and an opportunistic defense and it should close the door to Chicago gaining another win of that nature.
KC’s pick: Houston
Confidence level: 6
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Saquon Barkley may be on track to lead the league in rushing, as the Eagles showed last week that they are going to rely on the run early and often. That will give Barkley the carry volume, but the real reason he could be the most prolific RB in 2024 is that he showed the same speed, cutback ability, and exceptional vision that helped him lead the league in scrimmage yards in his rookie season.
That makes the Eagles offense maybe the most dangerous platoon in the NFL given that they also have Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith. Atlanta can match some of that talent, but the Falcons have a subpar offensive line, while the Eagles have the best offensive line coach in the NFL in Jeff Stoutland. That’s already enough of an edge to win this game and when you add in home field, it should be a convincing victory.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 7