Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 3. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 12-8 this year and are 233-150-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 8-4 this year and have netted a 273-111-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Chicago at Indianapolis

The Bears need to be really careful with Caleb Williams, as he was hit early and often in the Sunday night game versus Houston and will not make it through an entire season if that continues. The good news for Chicago is that the Colts defense isn’t great at rushing the passer and it has struggled to stop the run and the pass, so Williams may have his best game of the season.

That will go well with a Bears defense that has posted some strong metrics in many areas. Indianapolis will aim to counter this with a steady diet of Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson rushes, but with Chicago’s defense being that much better than the Colts, the Bears gain this selection by a very small margin.

KC’s pick: Chicago

Confidence level: 1

Houston at Minnesota

Sam Darnold has proven to be a perfect fit for the Vikings, as he doesn’t need to be the hero and can just be a high percentage quarterback in a well-designed offense. He also has plenty of talent around him, and that has allowed Justin Jefferson to continue to be the dominant player he was before this season.

C.J. Stroud is in the same boat in that he is a high percentage quarterback in a well-designed offense, but Stroud also has more talented pass catchers than Darnold and has more passing and rushing skills as well. Stroud does have to face a creative Brian Flores defense, but Darnold has a tough defensive matchup as well. In the final analysis, Houston has more talent and that’s enough to give them a slight edge here.

KC’s pick: Houston

Confidence level: 1

Philadelphia at New Orleans

The Saints have been an absolute powerhouse so far this year, as they ran roughshod over an overmatched Panthers squad, and followed that up by ending the Cowboys home win streak in a dominating manner. Alvin Kamara is showing that his 2023 numbers (when he was nearly as productive as CMC or Breece Hall on a per-play basis) were no fluke, and Derek Carr is having his finest season.

The Eagles have been anything but a powerhouse, as Philadelphia’s defense has been terrible, and Jalen Hurts is turning the ball over far too often. The Eagles do have Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith, but they almost certainly won’t have A.J. Brown for this one. That’s not a recipe for success in this tough road battle, so take New Orleans in this one.

KC’s pick: New Orleans

Confidence level: 4

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh

This game will be a throwback to 1970s power football, as the Steelers have reverted back to their power-centric ways and Jim Harbaugh is showing the NFL that his run the damn ball approach at Michigan can work just as effectively at the pro level.

The tiebreaker here may be Justin Herbert’s health, as he injured his ankle in last week’s game at Carolina. Whether he’s out or just at less than full strength, it’s something that will make the Steelers defense be even more aggressive and it gives Pittsburgh the edge in this pick.

KC’s pick: Pittsburgh

Confidence level: 2

Green Bay at Tennessee

It’s a good thing that Will Levis landed his mayonnaise commercials before this season, because his on-field play is so poor that his coach was yelling “what are you doing?!” at him in last week’s contest. The Titans pass game is so dismal that DeAndre Hopkins has only been targeted on three occasions in the first two weeks and has generated just two catches for 17 yards.

The Packers have a wild card in that it is possible that Jordan Love will return to the lineup this week, but Matt LaFleur already showed the Packers path to success in Love’s absence by giving the ball to Josh Jacobs on 32 occasions. LaFleur also put together a game plan that helped Malik Willis go 12 for 14 for 122 yards and a touchdown through the air and should be able to replicate that approach this week. That’s more than enough to push this pick towards Green Bay.

KC’s pick: Green Bay

Confidence level: 4

Detroit at Arizona

The Lions have a quandary. They have the makings of a great passing attack, especially with the development of Jameson Williams into a go-to wideout, but they also have arguably the best 1-2 rushing combination in the NFL in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The quandary stems from which approach to use to protect the Lions secondary, as that group has terrible coverage metrics and could benefit from less time on the field.

The Cardinals might have been hard pressed to exploit that coverage weakness before the arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr., as Kyler Murray has been arguably the worst vertical pass quarterback in the league over the past two years. That changed last week when Harrison dominated a weak Rams secondary and thus Arizona will aim to repeat that. That should turn this game into a 50/50 shootout that makes the home team the better pick.

KC’s pick: Arizona

Confidence level: 2

Baltimore at Dallas

Many advanced metrics indicate that Baltimore is playing quite well this year, but the major issue for this team is that the Ravens haven’t been able to get Derrick Henry into top gear. That’s not entirely surprising given that his outside zone skills weren’t a perfect fit with the zone read-centric concepts this team used in past years, but Baltimore’s coaching staff isn’t about to give up on getting Henry’s skills in full gear, especially after an 0-2 start.

The Cowboys matchup may be just what Henry, and the Ravens need to shift him into overdrive, as the Dallas defense was out of sorts last week trying to stop Alvin Kamara. The Cowboys also have no run game to speak of, and they have a limited aerial attack, so Baltimore gets this selection.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 4

Kansas City at Atlanta

Give the Falcons credit, as there were many times during their Monday Night Football matchup against the Eagles that the game seemed lost, yet Atlanta kept battling back and eventually gained a win due in large part to that never quit mentality. From a personnel perspective, Bijan Robinson has been superb this year, yet still has room to do even more in this offense.

The Chiefs are in the same underachieving boat, as Kansas City’s defense is playing below its dominant 2023 level and Travis Kelce hasn’t done much this year. The Chiefs will also be without Isiah Pacheco, but this club still has Patrick Mahomes as well as Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. His ability to hit those big play targets is something Kirk Cousins just can’t match, so this pick goes to the Chiefs.

KC’s pick: Kansas City

Confidence level: 3

Jacksonville at Buffalo

The Bills lost a ton of defensive talent this past offseason, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at how this platoon has played this year. That has been especially true on vertical passes, as Damar Hamlin is helping to lead this squad to league best numbers versus long aerials. Josh Allen is also showing that he is capable of turning so-so receiving talents into playmakers.

The Jaguars are nowhere near as adept in these areas, as Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been able to direct this team to a win since Week 12 of last season. Christian Kirk has all but disappeared from this offense and Evan Engram is dealing with a hamstring injury that could keep him out of the lineup this week. Add it up and this one goes to Buffalo.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 5

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 273-111-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

New England at New York Jets

The Patriots have played much better under first year head coach Jerod Mayo than expected, as New England upset the Bengals in Week 1 and took the Seahawks into overtime in Week 2 before losing. The formula for Mayo is as old as football itself, as he’s called for 46 runs from Rhamondre Stevenson and has his defense playing a high percentage brand of football.

That might keep this game close, but the Jets have a very smart quarterback who is good at avoiding mistakes and they have breakaway threats in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Combine that with a New York defense that can play better than it has so far this year and this game being a short week home matchup for the Jets, and this is a New York pick.

KC’s pick: New York Jets

Confidence level: 6

New York Giants at Cleveland

New York has a new star in Malik Nabers, as he racked up 10 receptions on 18 targets for 127 yards and a touchdown against Washington. The problem for the Giants is as talented as Nabers is, the Commanders secondary has abysmal coverage metrics this year, so that performance may have said as much about Washington as it did Nabers.

Cleveland’s secondary is much better than that and the Browns also have a powerhouse ground attack. Deshaun Watson may also be able to get more done this week through the air than usual, as the Giants have some coverage weaknesses. Add in the home field advantage for Cleveland and this pick leans in their direction.

KC’s pick: Cleveland

Confidence level: 6

Denver at Tampa Bay

Baker Mayfield has played like a former No. 1 overall pick this year, as he destroyed Washington’s secondary in Week 1, made his share of big plays against the Lions in Week 2, and is now considered a longshot NFL MVP candidate.

That is most certainly not the case with Bo Nix, who is playing so badly that it won’t be a surprise if the Broncos consider putting Zach Wilson into the lineup if Nix continues at this pace. Denver also doesn’t have much offensive help for Nix and doesn’t have a defensive edge over the Buccaneers, so this one goes into the Tampa Bay column.

KC’s pick: Tampa Bay

Confidence level: 7

Carolina at Las Vegas

Antonio Pierce showed that the energy he displayed last season in stabilizing the Raiders seemingly lost season was still around in 2024, and that steady approach helped Las Vegas to an upset win at Baltimore last week. This indicates that when the Raiders are on their game, they can keep up with even a top five club.

The Panthers have no such energy, and the most notable part of their season is that despite being an absolute train wreck of a team, Carolina is hasn’t even been a touchdown underdog in any matchup this year (they are listed at +5 points for this matchup). The Panthers should be a touchdown road underdog in this game, and that’s why this is the most confident pick in Week 3

KC’s pick: Las Vegas

Confidence level: 8

Miami at Seattle

Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald said before the season that the Seahawks were going to be a run-heavy team, but he showed last week that this mindset is malleable, as Geno Smith threw 44 times and gained 327 yards in the air to help Seattle gain an overtime win at New England. This is important because the Seahawks have the aerial talent to do this type of thing, and it shows Macdonald will utilize them if need be.

That might not be needed this week, as Miami has been one of the worst rush defenses in the league, but the biggest factor here is that Tua Tagovailoa will miss this game due to the concussion he suffered in the Buffalo game. Mike McDaniel is capable of working around this weakness, but it’s a tough ask for Skylar Thompson to do much in a very difficult road environment, so take the Seahawks here.

KC’s pick: Seattle

Confidence level: 6

San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams

This is a battle of banged up teams. The Rams get the worst of that area, as Los Angeles has already placed 11 players on injured reserve and that’s before considering that Cooper Kupp, who will miss this game with an ankle injury, isn’t one of those 11 players. The Rams still have Kyren Williams, however, so they won’t lack for some semblance of an impact rush attack.

The 49ers won’t have Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel for this one, but San Francisco will still have Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle as impact pass targets. They also have Jordan Mason, who isn’t in CMC’s class, yet has shown that he is a capable of being a strong start candidate. Merge these with the 49ers recent success versus the Rams (wins in nine of the last 11 matchups) and San Francisco is the pick.

KC’s pick: San Francisco

Confidence level: 7

Washington at Cincinnati

Give Jayden Daniels credit, as he has completed over 70 percent of his passes this year and rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns. It’s the sort of performance that has helped Washington stay competitive this year and could earn him much Offensive Rookie of The Year consideration if it continues.

That gives the Commanders a chance, but Washington also has dismal coverage metrics and faces Joe Burrow just one week after he nearly led his injury-challenged offense to an upset road win over Kansas City. This coverage matchup should lead Ja’Marr Chase and Burrow to both have their best games of the year and it easily lands this selection with the Bengals.

KC’s pick: Cincinnati

Confidence level: 7

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