Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 5. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 24-19 this year and are 245-159-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 13-9 this year and have netted a 278-116-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Falcons offense has played well below its talent level, as Atlanta has Bijan Robinson, Kirk Cousins, Drake London and Kyle Pitts and yet ranks near the bottom of the league in offensive points scored. This is for a variety of reasons, including tough opponents and a shaky offensive line, but most of it boils down to Cousins doesn’t look like he in Minnesota.
Tampa Bay’s offense has been hitting on all cylinders at times this year. Mike Evans had a breakout game last week, Chris Godwin has been very consistent, and Tampa Bay is now utilizing a platoon backfield of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. That is more than enough firepower to keep ahead of the sputtering Atlanta offense, so take the Buccaneers in this one.
KC’s pick: Tampa Bay
Confidence level: 4
New York Jets vs Minnesota (in London)
Minnesota has shown that it can win games with a powerful offensive performance or via Brian Flores’ creative defensive playcalling getting into the opposing quarterback’s mind. That offense got even more of a boost last week with Jordan Addison back on board, and that was with him only catching three passes yet scoring two touchdowns.
The Jets have shown they can win on defense, but things are nowhere near as good on offense, as Aaron Rodgers looked pedestrian last week versus a powerful Broncos defense. New York also has an issue in that Sauce Gardner is allowing a double-digit yards per target total this year. That’s just too many weaknesses when facing one of the NFL’s best teams, so take the Vikings here.
KC’s pick: Minnesota
Confidence level: 4
Carolina at Chicago
The Panthers gave the Bengals a run for the money last week. That shows just how much of a difference that Andy Dalton has made to Carolina, as his presence has stepped up the play of just about everyone on that squad.
That improvement will keep this game close, but Chicago still has a notable edge with a defense that is playing quite well of late. The Bears are also finally starting to get stronger play out of Caleb Williams. That factor will help offset the Dalton factor and when that is added to this game being in Chicago, it’s a Bears selection.
KC’s pick: Chicago
Confidence level: 3
Baltimore at Cincinnati
There is just something awe inspiring about seeing a 6-foot-2, 247-pound running back outrun defensive backs on an 87-yard touchdown run as Derrick Henry did last week versus Buffalo. He nearly racked up 200 yards in that matchup and could threaten for that number again this week versus a really banged up Bengals front seven. Combine that with Lamar Jackson’s skills and it will turn this game into a shootout.
Joe Burrow is perfectly capable of getting the Bengals to keep up in that format, especially since the Ravens have some coverage weaknesses, but Baltimore just has more firepower than Cincinnati. It will be close, as AFC North battles often are, but the Ravens have more paths to victory and thus get this pick.
KC’s pick: Baltimore
Confidence level: 3
Buffalo at Houston
This is one of the closest games on the Week 5 board, as the betting public lists this game with a 1-point spread in favor of Buffalo. That’s understandable given how well Josh Allen and company had played before last week, and Houston doesn’t present the Bills with the same matchup problem that Baltimore did.
Having noted this, the Texans do have a passing attack that is much better than the Ravens. They also have Stefon Diggs, who will be beyond fired up to show up his former team. Houston could also get Joe Mixon back this week, thus providing them with a backfield upgrade. Merge those with the home field and it’s enough to move this into Houston’s column.
KC’s pick: Houston
Confidence level: 1
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
The main story of this game is going to be whether or not Indianapolis can end a nine-game losing streak at Jacksonville. The Colts have found every manner one can think of to keep losing this road game to their AFC South rival, and they will be dealing with many injury issues headed into this one, with the main one being whether or not Jonathan Taylor will play.
Jacksonville has plenty of issues of its own, as there is talk that if the Jaguars lose this game, head coach Doug Pederson will be fired. Jacksonville doesn’t lack for injuries of its own as well, yet the prime factor here is still that the Colts seem to believe in the jinx that is this road trip. There isn’t enough here in the other factors to offset that mojo, so this is a Jacksonville selection.
KC’s pick: Jacksonville
Confidence level: 2
Miami at New England
The Monday night game between Tennessee and Miami had some of the worst quarterback play we’ve seen in years, but this game may not be much better considering that it’s a matchup of Tyler Huntley versus Jacoby Brissett.
The issue for Miami is that Huntley can only run the ball and seems incapable of keeping any semblance of a passing game going. Brissett has shown that he can move the ball at a solid pace through the air. Unless and until Miami can do more, it’s offense will be crippled, and that’s enough to take New England in a home matchup for them.
KC’s pick: New England
Confidence level: 3
Las Vegas at Denver
The Raiders are the soap opera of the NFL. It keeps looking like their season is going to fall apart, yet Antonio Pierce keeps finding a way to push the team to victory. This can only go on for so long, though, as there is now talk of benching Gardner Minshew II for Aidan O’Connell, which really doesn’t seem like an upgrade. It’s gotten so bad that as of this writing, Davante Adams is demanding a trade out of Las Vegas.
Denver’s offense isn’t any better and it might actually be a step down from the Raiders, but the Broncos defense has been absolutely dominant of late. Those two elements will keep this a low scoring game, and in that instance the team with the better defense and that is at home will get the pick.
KC’s pick: Denver
Confidence level: 3
Dallas at Pittsburgh
This is one of the NFL’s classic rivalries, as these teams have played in three Super Bowls, but truth be told this particular edition of this series isn’t up to par with some of the great matchups.
Having said that, Pittsburgh’s defense has played exceptionally well this year prior to last week when the Steelers had to switch game plans from the run-heavy Anthony Richardson to the pass-heavy Joe Flacco. That’s not a circumstance likely to repeat this week, so expect strong play from this platoon as well as getting a good dual threat performance from Justin Fields.
Dallas has now figured out that it doesn’t have a run game, as Ezekiel Elliott’s elite rushing talents left him long ago and Rico Dowdle is not a back one builds a rushing attack around. CeeDee Lamb is a touchdown waiting to happen, and Dak Prescott is a top 10 quarterback, but that likely won’t be enough to overcome the Steelers’ advantages.
KC’s pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence level: 3
New Orleans at Kansas City
The Chiefs are undefeated, but anyone who has watched them closely knows that this team is nowhere near its usual league best form. Patrick Mahomes is now considered a low-end QB1 in fantasy due to not scoring 20+ points for nine straight games, and that pace isn’t on track to end now that Rashee Rice will be out for at least a short amount of time. That will cause the Chiefs to lean on their defense and ask Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy to put together some big plays.
The Saints path to victory this year has been paved by Alvin Kamara. New Orleans is leaning on him far too much, and he is already starting to show signs of wear and tear, but he’s not on the injury list this week and should be at full strength for this one. The Saints also have big play ability through Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed but winning at Kansas City is one of the toughest tasks in the NFL. New Orleans will keep it closer than expected and probably cover the spread, but the Chiefs are the moneyline pick.
KC’s pick: Kansas City
Confidence level: 3
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 278-116-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Cleveland at Washington
Jayden Daniels has already skyrocketed to the top of the Offensive Rookie of the Year award charts, as he is posting rookie records and seems to get better every week. He’s also a dual threat akin to Lamar Jackson and has been in sync with Terry McLaurin to the tune of 11 catches for 152 yards and two touchdowns over the past two weeks.
The Washington secondary is among the worst in the league, so Cleveland should be able hit some big plays, but let’s not forget that Deshaun Watson hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in a single game this season. Even if that changes, Washington is on a roll and playing in only its second home game of the year, so this one goes to the Commanders.
KC’s pick: Washington
Confidence level: 6
Arizona at San Francisco
There is no doubt that the Cardinals are a well-coached team that will fight for victory for 60 minutes. That’s a primary reason this article series has picked Arizona to win on a couple of occasions this year, and it will lead to more picks of that nature at some point.
This is not one of those points. The 49ers are now starting to get healthy, and they have a huge firepower advantage over the Cardinals. Combine that with Arizona’s shaky defense and San Francisco’s defense starting to hit its stride and this one easily goes to the 49ers.
KC’s pick: San Francisco
Confidence level: 8
Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams
Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love deserve a huge amount of credit. Last week, Love returned from a knee injury and faced one of the best defensive play callers in the league in Brian Flores. LaFleur put together an equally strong game plan that eventually led to 29 points after a rough early start.
That rough early start won’t be the case versus a Rams defense that is chock full of injuries, which is why just about every offensive matchup looks highly favorable for the Packers. The Rams can’t say the same, as they are down to backups throughout their receiving corps, so this one leans heavily in favor of Green Bay.
KC’s pick: Green Bay
Confidence level: 7
New York Giants at Seattle
Malik Nabers is giving Jayden Daniels a run for the money when it comes to the Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, as Nabers is making what was an atrocious New York passing game actually look like a strong suit. He’s also getting help from Wan’Dale Robinson, whose consistent production has made it tougher for defenses to concentrate on stopping Nabers.
The big issue for this week is that Nabers may not play due to a concussion. Seattle also has just as many impact players on offense, as D.K. Metcalf is off to a fantastic start, Kenneth Walker III has returned from injury and scored three touchdowns last week, and Geno Smith is playing close to his strong 2022 level. The game is also in Seattle, which is a very tough road environment, so this is a Seahawks pick.
KC’s pick: Seattle
Confidence level: 6