Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 8. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 44-28 this year and are 265-168-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 24-11 this year and have netted a 289-118-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Minnesota at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have been struggling to find ways to generate passing production with less than stellar wide receiver play. That is why the Rams haven’t posted 300+ net passing yards since Week 1. The good news is this personnel issue is coming to an end, with Cooper Kupp slated to return to the lineup tonight. That should help Los Angeles shift the offense into a higher gear, but let’s also note that this is only one upgrade and that this is still an offense that isn’t at full strength.

The Vikings offense has superb this year despite some personnel shortages as well, but this platoon is on track to get T.J. Hockenson back in the lineup. Jordan Addison can also do a lot more than he has thus far, as Addison has capped out at three receptions in every game he’s played in this year. Add that to Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones and it should equal plenty of points for Minnesota. Combine it to a defense that has racked up 14 takeaways this year, including two or more in all but one game, and this is a Vikings selection.

KC’s pick: Minnesota

Confidence level: 4

Philadelphia at Cincinnati

The Bengals defense turned things around once their defensive tackle group got healthy. Cincinnati had allowed 24 or more points in four straight games prior to this, but over the past two contests the Bengals have allowed only 21 points. The problem with this is that the opponents in those two games were Cleveland and the New York Giants, which are not exactly in the upper tier of offenses.

The Eagles are in the upper tier of offenses. Saquon Barkley is back to his elite form both in physical ability and in ability to read defenses on the run. Philadelphia also has A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith at full speed. These factors and Jalen Hurts will give the Bengals defense a test it has not had of late. Add that to the Eagles defense playing its best of late (albeit against the same Browns and Giants squads) and the Bengals passing game woes of late, and this one goes to Philadelphia.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 2

Indianapolis at Houston

Houston had what looked to be a formula for success last week at Green Bay. The Texans ran for 142 by leaning heavily on Joe Mixon, held the Packers to just 82 rushing yards and had a 3-0 lead in the turnover department. What the Texans didn’t do well is throw the ball, as C.J. Stroud only threw for 86 yards.

Passing success shouldn’t be an issue against the Colts, as Indianapolis has four secondary players who have allowed a 9.0 or higher YPT over the past four weeks (per Stathead). The Colts can’t match that aerial success, as their passing game has fallen apart with Anthony Richardson under center. Jonathan Taylor may return this week, but that passing disparity should be enough to send this game into the Texans column.

KC’s pick: Houston

Confidence level: 4

Green Bay at Jacksonville

The Packers pass game versus the Jaguars pass defense has the makings of a personnel mismatch. Green Bay has more quality wideouts than any team in the league and that has helped Jordan Love tally 2+ touchdown passes and 220+ passing yards in every game he’s played in this year. That dovetails well versus a Jacksonville secondary that has five players with a passing rating allowed mark of 98.3 or higher over the past four weeks.

Green Bay’s defense has been much more consistent, as there are five Packers defenders who have allowed a 6.6-yard or lower YPT mark since Week 4. Jacksonville has the capacity to win shootout games, as the Jaguars have posted 32 or more points twice in the past three weeks, but given their current respective trajectories, the Packers are the higher percentage play.

KC’s pick: Green Bay

Confidence level: 4

Arizona at Miami

The Cardinals are the known commodity in this game. Arizona is a well-coached club that gives plenty of effort, so opponents who overlook them tend to lose. The main issue for the Cardinals is Kyler Murray has posted abysmal vertical pass metrics over the past three seasons and that hasn’t improved much even with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr.

Miami had that same problem when Tua Tagovailoa was out of the lineup. With his return, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will go from near irrelevance to being impact players. That should also apply to De’Von Achane, who can now be utilized in more creative ways. The Dolphins don’t stop the run well, and that might keep the game close versus Arizona’s strong rushing attack, but this in general trends towards Miami.

KC’s pick: Miami

Confidence level: 4

Buffalo at Seattle

Seattle is a tough team to figure out. On the one hand, the Seahawks are very consistent at putting points on the board. Seattle has scored 20+ points in every game and 23 or more points in all but one contest. On the other hand, the Seahawks lost a game two weeks ago where they won the turnover battle 3-0 and won last week’s game against Atlanta despite losing the turnover battle 0-3. Seattle also sometimes shuts the run game down yet has allowed 155+ rushing yards in each of the past three games.

The Bills are in much the same boat, but there are more signs of consistency here. Buffalo’s pass game took a big step up with the acquisition of Amari Cooper, a factor that led to a season high 315 net passing yards last week. The Bills have also generated at least one takeaway in every game and have only two giveaways on the year. James Cook should also be able to get the ball moving versus the Seahawks’ inconsistent rush defense. It’s all enough to overcome the cross-country trip and put this in the Bills column, albeit by a small amount.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 1

Chicago at Washington

Chicago is on a two-game streak with five offensive touchdowns, something the Bears haven’t done since the 1950s. What makes this even more impressive is that Chicago has tallied 517 passing yards and 280 rushing yards in that span while also giving the ball away only once. The Bears also had a bye in Week 7, so they will hit the field with a fully rested squad and a defense that has racked up 2+ takeaway in every game but one.

This was supposed to be a matchup of Jayden Daniels versus Caleb Williams, but Daniels is all but certain to miss this contest with a rib injury he was hit with in the first quarter last week. Washington still has plenty of talent, having rushed for 200+ yards in three of the past four games, but a lot of that stemmed from Daniels’ unique abilities. Marcus Mariota doesn’t possess those, so this is a close Chicago pick.

KC’s pick: Chicago

Confidence level: 2

Dallas at San Francisco

These are two mistake prone offenses. The Cowboys have given the ball away on eight occasions over the past two weeks, while the 49ers have four games with two or more giveaways this year. The problem for Dallas here is that while San Francisco has five games with 2+ takeaways, the Cowboys have only five takeaways all season long and only three in the past five weeks.

Dallas also has an issue of being one of the most undisciplined defenses in the NFL. This is a major factor in the Cowboys allowing 184+ rushing yards on three occasions. San Francisco’s offense is more than capable of taking advantage of this even with the injuries the 49ers have been hit with, so this should be a home victory for San Francisco.

KC’s pick: San Francisco

Confidence level: 4

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 24-11 this year and have gone 285-118-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Baltimore at Cleveland

Just when it looks like the Ravens offense has hit its ceiling, Baltimore finds a way to be even more productive. That happened on Monday night against the Buccaneers, as Lamar Jackson showed he can be equally productive as a pocket passer as he can running the ball. That’s not all, as Derrick Henry should be in consideration for NFL MVP honors. He is displaying phenomenal breakaway skills for anyone, much less someone his size and age.

Cleveland will have to try to counter this with an offense directed by Jameis Winston. That’s not good, but the Browns do have Nick Chubb back and thus can try slowing the game down. That might work for a time, but the Browns have yet to score 20 or more points this year and there is little chance that changes this week. Add it up and this is a slam dunk Baltimore pick.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 9

Tennessee at Detroit

Detroit has proven it can turn any game into a scoreboard shootout, as the Lions have racked up 120 points over the past three weeks. What makes this trend even more dangerous is Detroit has tallied one or zero giveaways in all but one game this year. That dovetails well with a Lions defense that has posted at least one takeaway in every contest and posted five two weeks ago against Dallas.

The Titans do have a strong rush defense that has held all but one foe to 106 or fewer rushing yards. Tennessee can also run the ball, having gained 130+ rushing yards four times. What they don’t have is anything resembling a solid passing game, and that was before trading away DeAndre Hopkins this week. That will preclude Tennessee keeping up when the Lions kick their high scoring ways into gear, so take Detroit here.

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 8

New York Jets at New England

The NFL is becoming more ground-centric by the week. That’s not a good trend for the Patriots given their current status in that area. New England’s rushing attack has posted 82 or fewer yards in four of the past five games, including a dismal 38 rushing yards against Jacksonville in Week 7. The Patriots also can’t stop the run, having allowed 837 rushing yards over the past five weeks, including 171+ ground yards in each of the past three games.

That bodes well for Breece Hall to have a breakout performance. That might be enough to pick New York without any other elements, but the Patriots also have shaky coverage metrics. That includes cornerback Jonathan Jones allowing 11.8 yards per target since Week 4. Look for Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson and Aaron Rodgers to join Hall in having big days in a convincing Jets victory.

KC’s pick: New York

Confidence level: 8

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

It took a few games for the Atlanta offense to get into full gear this year, but there is little doubt that this group is at full speed now. The Falcons have racked up 114 points over the past four games, 353 rushing yards in the past two games and 75 first downs over the past three contests. This platoon is facing a Tampa Bay squad that has allowed 104 points and 1,361 offensive yards in the past three games, so points shouldn’t be a problem for the Atlanta.

The Buccaneers were on the same scoring wavelength until Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were hit with injuries in the Week 7 Monday Night Football game versus Baltimore. Tampa Bay still has some talent in the backfield, but it will be very difficult to keep up in a high scoring game when the Buccaneers starting wide receiver corps consists of Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard. It’s enough to project the Falcons by a more than solid margin.

KC’s pick: Atlanta

Confidence level: 7

New Orleans at Los Angeles Chargers

The most amazing part of the Chargers 2024 season is their inability to run the ball. Jim Harbaugh’s squad prides itself on an ability to move the ball on the ground, yet Los Angeles has tallied 61 or fewer rushing yards in three of the past four weeks. On the plus side, Justin Herbert did just throw for 349 yards in Week 7, so the Chargers do have the option of going to the air if need be.

Those rushing woes may come to an end versus a Saints defense that allowed 502 rushing yards over the past two weeks (277 versus Tampa Bay, 225 versus Denver). The New Orleans ground game is nearly as bad, as Alvin Kamara’s injury battles have led to the Saints gaining 100+ rush yards only once since Week 2. New Orleans also can’t rely on the pass with Spencer Rattler at quarterback and Chris Olave being the only quality wide receiver. Combine this with home field and it’s a definite Chargers pick.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 6

Carolina at Denver

Denver isn’t being talked about as one of the top ten teams in the league, yet there is a strong case to be made that the Broncos are in that tier. Denver’s defense has allowed 18 or fewer points in five of the past six games, and some of those were against some very good offenses. The Broncos rank high in pass rush rate, pass blocking rate and have strong advanced pass coverage metrics. Bo Nix isn’t a great quarterback, but Sean Payton is finding more than a few ways for Nix to make plays.

Carolina took a forward step when Andy Dalton replaced Bryce Young earlier this year. That momentum long ago faded, and this team has now allowed 34 or more points in four straight games. The Panthers had their worst offensive performance last week, generating only 180 net offensive yards, and now Young is back in the lineup following Dalton’s injury. That this game is in Denver only adds to the overwhelming case for the Broncos.

KC’s pick: Denver

Confidence level: 9

Kansas City at Las Vegas

The Chiefs are 6-0 and have posted that record against some very good teams. Having noted this, Kansas City still has its share of weaknesses. Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception in every game and the receiving corps is still subpar even after the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. The good news is the Chiefs defense is back to its elite 2023 level, and no team in the league is tougher to rush against.

A team with a strong passing game might be able to exploit Kansas City’s personnel weaknesses by moving the contest into shootout mode. The Raiders aren’t that team, having scored 18 or fewer points in three straight games. Las Vegas is also turnover prone, having registered ten giveaways in the past three games. That’s more than enough to send this in the direction of the Chiefs.

KC’s pick: Kansas City

Confidence level: 7

New York Giants at Pittsburgh

It looked like Pittsburgh might be sending Russell Wilson out to face the Jets to put an end to the quarterback controversy by having Wilson struggle against a tough defense. Instead, he put up fantastic numbers despite fighting off some inactivity rust. It’s just the latest in a line of superb offensive performances by the Steelers, as this team has scored 69 points over the past two weeks and generated 699 net offensive yards in that span.

The Giants are having no such offensive luck. New York managed to post only seven points versus Cincinnati in Week 6 and reached a nadir in Week 7 with only 119 yards in an embarrassing 28-3 home loss to Philadelphia. The Steelers defense is as good or better than the Eagles in many ways and this game is in Pittsburgh, so this one leans heavily in the Steelers direction.

KC’s pick: Pittsburgh

Confidence level: 8