Here are my Week 9 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 49-31 this year and are 270-171-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 29-13 this year and have netted a 294-120-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Houston at New York Jets

Houston is an underdog in this matchup despite having a 6-2 record versus the Jets’ 2-6 mark. A main reason for that is the Texans offense hasn’t been anywhere near as productive of late as it was earlier this year. A prime secondary reason related to that is Stefon Diggs was just lost for the season with an injury. The plus news for Houston is that its defense has been very good at creating takeaways, with nine in the past three weeks.

That will dovetail well with a Jets offense that had seven giveaways in Weeks 4-7. New York also hasn’t posted more than 22 points in a game since Week 3. The Jets defense has also shown some coverage weaknesses throughout the year and will be missing both of its starting safeties. Those limitations offset the Texans issues and make Houston the pick here.

KC’s pick: Houston

Confidence level: 4

Dallas at Atlanta

It’s tough to overstate how bad the Dallas defense has played at times this year. Over the past two weeks, the Cowboys have allowed 417 rushing yards. If that insanely high number isn’t enough, consider that Dallas also gave up 464 rushing yards in Weeks 2-3. The Cowboys have tallied only five takeaways all season long and two of those occurred in Week 1.

That’s not a good place to be when facing an Atlanta squad that has scored 31 or more points in three of the past four games. The Falcons also do a good job of protecting the ball, having one or zero giveaways in all but two games this year. Combine that with a defense that has five takeaways in the past three games and this contest being in Atlanta and this is a Falcons selection.

KC’s pick: Atlanta

Confidence level: 4

Denver at Baltimore

The Broncos are a nearly double-digit point underdog in this contest despite having won five of their past six games. Denver’s success comes from many factors, including Bo Nix’s dual threat skills that just resulted in his posting a season high 284 passing yards and three touchdowns last week. That could be a boon for the Broncos in a potential scoreboard shootout, as the Ravens secondary has multiple subpar coverage metrics.

Baltimore will have no problems keeping up in a high scoring game, as the Ravens are either the best or second-best offense in the league (depending on where one rates Detroit). From a pick perspective, it certainly is better to rely on Lamar Jackson, a two-time NFL MVP who is currently leading the 2024 NFL MVP odds, than a rookie having his first big success. Combine that with this game being in Baltimore and this one goes to the Ravens.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 3

Miami at Buffalo

Buffalo is having the same level of success it’s had in the past few years, but this season feels different. Part of it is due to a Buffalo defense that has shown it can impose its will on another team. This showed up last week when the Bills allowed only 32 rushing yards and 233 total net offensive yards to very talented Seattle offense and did that in a cross-country trip. Another part is that Josh Allen has ditched his gunslinger ways, which is why Buffalo has only three giveaways on the entire season.

Miami’s offense looked a lot better last week with the return of Tua Tagovailoa. That isn’t a backhanded compliment, as the Dolphins offense was abysmal when Tagovailoa was out, but it isn’t a full endorsement either, as Miami still couldn’t get Tyreek Hill into gear. Moving up to the next level won’t be easy to do versus that Bills defense, especially since the game is in Buffalo and Miami hasn’t won there since 2016, so this is a Bills pick.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 4

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland

Jameis Winston is a better fit for the Browns offense than Deshaun Watson was. Winston’s vertical pass numbers are much better, due in part to Watson’s hesitance to make a mistake on downfield throws, and he’s much more comfortable operating a pocket pass offense. That’s why Cleveland scored more than 18 points for the first time this season last week and why the Browns will be able to put up a solid point total versus most teams.

The Chargers defense will be one of the tougher scoring assignments for Watson and company. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this year and has given up 17 or fewer in all but one game. The Chargers pass coverage metrics are strong, and this defense does a solid job of ballhawking. That should lead to picks versus the risk-taking Winston, and since the Los Angeles passing game is developing well, this is a Chargers pick.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 4

New England at Tennessee

This is a tough game to pick. On the one hand, the Patriots offense has seen a minor resurgence with Drake Maye under center. Maye threw for 519 yards and five touchdowns in Weeks 6-7 and New England hasn’t turned the ball over in two straight games.

That could result in a solid point total versus a Titans team that has allowed 86 points over the past two weeks combined. The flip side of this is a Tennessee offense that can move the ball on the ground, having posted 142 or more rushing yards in three of the past four games. Add it up and it looks like a stoppable force versus a moveable object, so this pick splits the difference and takes the home team.

KC’s pick: Tennessee

Confidence level: 1

Chicago at Arizona

After three wins in the past four games and earning a share of first place in the NFC West, Arizona is finally receiving the respect it deserves. This is a highly motivated, well-coached team that has shown it can win scoreboard shootouts and defensive slugfests.

Chicago is tougher to figure out. A loss like last week’s embarrassing performance on the Hail Maryland can have a lasting effect, especially when the next game is a cross-country trip versus a team like the Cardinals. It’s still likely to be a toss-up game, but those factors and home field land this one in Arizona’s column.

KC’s pick: Arizona

Confidence level: 2

Detroit at Green Bay

Midseason games don’t get any bigger than this, as this contest could eventually decide the winner of the NFC North.

Detroit may have the best offense in the NFL today. The Lions have posted 116+ rushing yards in every game this year and have racked up 492 rushing yards in the past three games alone. That offensive octane could be very important for this contest, as Green Bay is one of the few teams that can potentially go toe-to-toe with the Lions in a shootout.

That potentially qualifier is the key. Green Bay has been very consistent in scoring this year, posting 24+ points in six straight games, but the Packers haven’t scored more than 30 points all year. Jordan Love also has a penchant for turning the ball over, which is not a good trend versus a Lions defense that has ten takeaways in the past three games.

The Packers defense is equally good at taking the ball away, but Detroit has only five giveaways all year and only one in the past three games. That should give the Lions the turnover edge and since Detroit has a higher scoring ceiling, this one goes to the Lions.

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 2

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle

The Rams offense took a huge forward step last week after the return of Cooper Kupp to the lineup. The net result was 279 net passing yards and a season high 30 points for Los Angeles. Assuming Puka Nacua is available for this game (which is up in the air as of this writing), the Rams should be able to equal or exceed that total versus an inconsistent Seattle secondary.

The Seahawks rush defense isn’t inconsistent — it’s just consistently bad, allowing 722 yards over the past four games. This means Seattle won’t be able to pay sole attention to pass defense, as Kyren Williams is capable of putting up 125 rush yards in this game. The Seahawks also have a wide receiver injury issue with D.K. Metcalf, who may be out for this contest. The Rams have proven they can win at Seattle, having been victorious in three of the past four games there, and this should be another successful journey for Los Angeles.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 4

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 24-11 this year and have gone 285-118-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.