Before diving into those, here’s a quick review of my 2024 regular season record. Those picks went 195-77 this year. That’s a 71.7 percent win rate that ranked 25th among the 180 selectors tracked by NFL Pickwatch this season.
The playoff opener of the Chargers at Texans will be available to all readers. The remaining picks will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston
If there was any question about whether or not J.K. Dobbins is at full speed following his Week 17 return from injury, that question was answered over the past two weeks when Dobbins tallied a total of 37 carries and four receptions. This shows Jim Harbaugh knows Dobbins is ready to reinstitute the brand of power football that has won Harbaugh titles at every level.
That’s not good news for a Houston team that does not fare well when facing power football. The Texans have allowed 100+ rushing yards on ten occasions this season and are 4-6 in those games. This trend has gotten worse as the season progressed, with Houston losing the last five games it gave up 100 or more rushing yards. The Texans also are only two weeks away from allowing a season high 251 rush yards against Baltimore. That doesn’t bode well for Houston to be able to deal with Dobbins at a bell cow work rate, so this is a Chargers pick.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 5
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