Hello again! Here are my Week 12 fantasy football notes.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Cleveland had more than a few players with strong fantasy point totals last week. That may motivate fantasy managers to consider starting some Browns players in Week 12, especially with six teams on a bye.
The suggestion here is to consider the Browns low percentage options. The Steelers just shut down an incredibly strong Baltimore offense. Pittsburgh will also be highly motivated to play well against an AFC North team they used to dominate. That combination will make the Cleveland players put up point totals that more closely resemble Week 10’s duds than the Week 11 totals.
Kansas City at Carolina
Kareem Hunt posted only 6.0 PPR points last week. That was easily his lowest point total of the year. Don’t expect anything near a repeat performance versus a Carolina rush defense that is simply abysmal. This matchup is so favorable that Hunt may post his best fantasy point total of this season. Keep that in mind when setting lineups, as it might allow you to make a percentage play instead of a lower percentage upside pick opposite Hunt.
Minnesota at Chicago
It might be a good move to roster Roschon Johnson. D’Andre Swift missed Wednesday’s practice due to a groin injury that seemed to cap his workload in Week 11. If the Bears decide to play it safe, Johnson could end up being the lead back this week and have solid flex value in a week with limited start options.
Tennessee at Houston
It might be time to drop C.J. Stroud from most fantasy rosters. He’s posted very low point totals of late, in part due to Houston being able to rely on Joe Mixon early and often. That trend will continue this week versus a shaky Titans rush defense. Add that to the Titans very strong pass coverage metrics and it might be a week to sit all Houston pass catchers (at least in 8- or 10-team leagues).
The rest of KC Joyner’s Week 12 fantasy football notes are available exclusively for Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Detroit at Indianapolis
Last week’s 34.8 points was a matchup-based anomaly for Jared Goff. The Lions can still put up 30+ points against the Colts, but with Indianapolis providing one of the most favorable rush defense matchups in Week 12, it’s not likely that Goff will be putting up huge passing numbers. Rate him as an upper-tier QB2 who is a solid fill-in start candidate, but don’t expect a repeat of Week 11.
New England at Miami
Tyreek Hill hasn’t been his typical impact self even after Tua Tagovailoa returned. The Dolphins are starting to get adjusted to things, however, as Hill tied a season high with seven catches last week and found the end zone. He has one of the most favorable cornerback matchups in Week 12, so there is a very good chance Hill has a strong WR1-caliber point total. Be sure to get him into all starting lineups.
Tampa Bay at New York Giants
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has shown bell cow capability with 16 or more carries in five out of the six games since he was promoted to the lead back role. That role won’t change with Tommy DeVito (aka, Tommy Cutlets) under center. The Buccaneers also rate as one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. That matchup isn’t enough to vault Tracy to the RB1 tier, but a bell cow versus a favorable matchup is a RB2 in nearly every situation, and doubly so this week.
Dallas at Washington
Jayden Daniels was a must start candidate for many teams in Weeks 1-9. Over the past two weeks, Daniels has tallied only 22 fantasy points. The matchup against Dallas is favorable overall, but the Cowboys pass rush and pass coverage metrics have been much better of late. The same cannot be said for the Dallas rush defense, as it has been pitiable all year long.
Add these together and Daniels is a risky start candidate due to Washington likely leaning on the ground game. That’s not to say to sit him, but the low scoring pace he’s been on the past two games may continue given the circumstances.
Denver at Las Vegas
Odd as it sounds, being shifted from the lead back role to a platoon back with Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin has probably been a good thing for Javonte Williams. Last week, Williams posted his highest average yards per rush of the 2024 season and had his third highest catch total. It’s the type of thing that should extend his flex value to the end of the fantasy season.
San Francisco at Green Bay
The Packers wide receiving corps has been a fantasy start headache. It’s a really deep set of quality players, and since Matt LaFleur doesn’t aim to feature any of them, there is usually one player per week who does well while the others struggle.
This week’s wide receiver/cornerback matchups look like Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs could end up as the wideouts who post quality point totals. Having noted this, start them at your own risk, as the floor is low if this move doesn’t pan out.
Arizona at Seattle
Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a hit-miss player in fantasy this year. This is in large part due to inconsistent vertical pass production from Kyler Murray, who has been one of the worst vertical passers in the league the past few years.
That should change this week versus a Seattle secondary that is playing quite poorly. This means Harrison has a very good chance of catching the long passes that are a huge part of his fantasy scoring profile. Be sure to get him into lineups despite the inconsistent scoring trend.
Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford has been a great fantasy asset since Cooper Kupp has returned. It’s why Stafford has posted 17+ points in three of the past four weeks.
It’s notable that Stafford posted only 9.72 points in the outlier week. The reason is that the Eagles defense is hands down the best in the league right now. That trends Stafford towards a low ceiling if things go well and a very low floor if they don’t. There are higher percentage options out there, so if you want to avoid a potential subpar game during these bye weeks, it may behoove you to go after one of those QBs rather than stick with Stafford in the lineup.
Baltimore at Los Angeles Chargers
More than half of Lamar Jackson’s touchdown passes this year occurred in three games against the Cincinnati and Tampa Bay defenses. Those are two of the worst coverage platoons in the 2024 season and Jackson posted fantastic fantasy numbers against them because of this.
Jackson didn’t fare anywhere near as well versus a tough Pittsburgh defense last week. The Chargers defense isn’t quite in the Steelers class, but it’s darn close. That’s not to say that Jackson is a sit candidate by any stretch, but don’t be surprised if he posts another game with fewer than 20 points this year. That would mark two in a row of that nature and would be the first time that’s happened to Jackson this season.