Hello again! Here are my Week 14 fantasy football notes.
Green Bay at Detroit
This is probably not a good week to start Jordan Love. He has thrown only 68 passes over the past three weeks combined and the Lions defense has tallied some tremendous coverage metrics over the past month. Combine that with Love posting fewer than 15 points in three of the past four weeks, and this matchup trends in a low scoring direction for Love.
New York Jets at Miami
The Jets defense just hasn’t been the same since Robert Saleh left. Per Stathead, over the past month D.J. Reed, Sauce Gardner, Chuck Clark and Michael Carter II have allowed a yards per target level of 8.0 or higher. That’s not the type of matchup that should be able to slow down Tua Tagovailoa, who has posted 23+ points in three straight games. Be sure to get him and every other impact Dolphins skill position player into lineups this week.
Atlanta at Minnesota
Outside of Bijan Robinson, it’s not a good idea to trust anyone on the Falcons offense right now. Kyle Pitts has 2.1 or fewer points in two of the past three weeks and Kirk Cousins has tallied just over seven points in the past two weeks combined. The Vikings defense has been able to dominate in many scenarios this year, and this looks like one of those scenarios.
New Orleans at New York Giants
Alvin Kamara has been getting a bell cow work volume this season, but that hasn’t translated into touchdowns, as he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 6. This matchup may change that. New York’s rush defense is terrible and has allowed five rushing touchdowns over the past four weeks. That could return Kamara to the land of 20+ PPR points for the first time since Week 9.
The rest of KC Joyner’s Week 14 fantasy football notes are available exclusively for Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Carolina at Philadelphia
A.J. Brown is an automatic start, but if you have DeVonta Smith on your team and need an upside play, he might not be it. This isn’t due to injury, as Smith is fully healthy again for the first time in weeks, but rather because Carolina has an abysmal rush defense. Philadelphia has shown it will lean on the ground game as much as it can, and this matchup will allow for that all game long. That may limit the volume of passes Jalen Hurts throws and Smith might be the one to lose targets.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh and Cleveland both played in scoreboard shootouts last week. Before getting fired up for a repeat of that, know that Mike Tomlin will do all he can to prevent another game of that nature from occurring. This will mean a heavy lean on Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Those two both belong in lineups but play the rest of these start-sit candidates as lower than usual production plays.
Las Vegas at Tampa Bay
Baker Mayfield was a solid NFL MVP candidate earlier this year due to the Buccaneers letting him air the ball out early and often. That should be the case this week against a Raiders secondary that rates among the worst in the league of late. The caveat here is if Mike Evans’ missed practice on Wednesday due to hamstring and calf injuries is something that impacts his game availability. If that was just a rest time and Evans is available, look for Mayfield to post 20+ points in this one.
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Don’t sell the Titans players short as viable fantasy start options.
Tony Pollard is a bell cow back who had 21.9 PPR points against Houston in Week 12 and can hit that level again in this matchup.
Calvin Ridley has seen 6+ targets in eight straight games and can turn those targets into double-digit PPR points versus an atrocious Jaguars secondary.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has posted 10+ PPR points in five of the past six games, touchdowns in seven of the past eight and can do both versus this favorable matchup.
Even Will Levis has fantasy start value. He’s posted 15+ points in four straight games and is a more than viable QB2 in 2QB or superflex leagues.
Seattle at Arizona
Mike Macdonald’s defense has been playing much better of late. The same can be said for Arizona’s defense. That combination suggests that this game will be a low scoring slugfest. This means caution should be taken when starting anyone on these rosters, as they will have low scoring ceilings.
Trey McBride is the exception, as he has 12 receptions in each of the past two games, one of which was against Seattle. He belongs in all starting lineups.
Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams
Last week was a turnaround game for Kyren Williams. His 18.3 PPR points was his highest point total since Week 8. That was a bit of a surprise since the Rams started rotating Blake Corum into last week’s game, but that may indicate Los Angeles is just trying to keep Williams from wearing out.
That’s a plus for this game since Los Angeles would do well to avoid the pass coverage matchup that is the Buffalo secondary. The Bills rush defense is much more favorable, so look for the Rams to run more often than usual. That should generate another strong game from Williams. It may cap Matthew Stafford’s value but be sure to still get Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp into lineups, as they will simply garner almost all of the Rams limited pass attempts.
Chicago at San Francisco
Caleb Williams has posted two straight games with 26+ points due in large part to the Bears new play caller simplifying the game plan. Williams now has clearer reads that are a better fit for a rookie passer. That trend should continue here and with the 49ers rush defense struggling badly (the Bills pushed them around with power running all game long) don’t be surprised if Williams has some planned rushes added to his mix. Put it together and he may have a third straight game with 20+ points.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City
The Chiefs defense is nowhere near what it was last year. They just benched a starting cornerback, have subpar coverage metrics among many players and haven’t covered deep passes very well this season. Since the Chargers ground game has been stuck in neutral since J.K. Dobbins was hurt, this has the makings of an aerial attack from Justin Herbert. Look for him to have a very strong day and consider starting Will Dissly or Quentin Johnston if you are looking for longshot upside picks.
Cincinnati at Dallas
Don’t sell the Cowboys D/ST short. This platoon has scored 37 points over the past two weeks. It has the capacity to replicate the Steelers performance against Cincinnati where Pittsburgh allowed 32 offensive points and yet scored a touchdown, racked up three takeaways and had four sacks. Those splash plays made the difference and led to the Steelers D/ST scoring 14 points.
This doesn’t mean Dallas is a must start candidate, but if you need a swing for the fences D/ST to try to steal a win to make the fantasy playoffs, this is a platoon to consider.