Hello again! Here are my Week 15 fantasy football notes.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco
Deebo Samuel has been an absolute dud of late, scoring only 18.7 PPR points over the past four games. This isn’t an unfavorable matchup, but the reality is that it is just not a good idea to risk putting Samuel into starting lineups during the fantasy playoffs at this time. Don’t drop him if it can be avoided, as a Samuel bounce back could win a fantasy playoff game in the next two weeks, but he has to show this production first before trusting him with a starting lineup spot.
Dallas at Carolina
Rico Dowdle seemed to have a workload limit earlier this year that capped his fantasy value. That limit has now disappeared, with Dowdle posting 66 scrimmage plays over the last three weeks. The Carolina rush defense is one of the worst in the league right now, and when that is combined with Dowdle likely to get 20+ carries, it makes him a borderline RB1 this week.
Kansas City at Cleveland
Patrick Mahomes has fallen back to QB2 status of late. That’s a concerning trend given his earlier season struggles and will have some fantasy managers thinking of benching him for this contest.
The Browns recent pass coverage metrics indicate that’s not a good idea. This is one of the most favorable pass coverage matchups of Week 15, so be sure to start Mahomes unless you have one of the true elite fantasy quarterbacks to go with.
Miami at Houston
Jonnu Smith’s three-game streak with 20+ PPR points ended last week when he posted only 13.4 PPR points against the Jets. That’s still a starting caliber point total, but the matchup against Houston, a team that has subpar numbers versus opponents’ tight ends of late, provides a path for another 20+ point game for Smith. Get him in all starting lineups, even if only as a flex.
The rest of KC Joyner’s Week 15 fantasy football notes are available exclusively for Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
New York Jets at Jacksonville
It may seem like a great idea to start the Jets D/ST this week. Before doing so, consider that New York has tallied four or fewer points in six of the past eight weeks. This shows this platoon just hasn’t been the same since Robert Saleh left. It’s also a reason to look elsewhere for a higher percentage D/ST play in Week 15.
Washington at New Orleans
Jayden Daniels hit the rookie wall earlier this year after suffering a rib injury versus Chicago. His fantasy point totals fell off after that, but with 58 points over the past two weeks, Daniels is back to his earlier season form. The Saints offer one of the most favorable pass coverage matchups in Week 15, so Daniels rates as a mid-tier QB1 this week.
Baltimore at New York Giants
Is this a good week to start Zay Flowers? He’s scored fewer than 12 PPR points in four straight games, so that’s a subpar trend. He has a matchup against Giants cornerback Dru Phillips that isn’t highly favorable. New York has also been very good at stopping vertical passes of late. Add it up and Flowers can serve as a high floor flex candidate, but hopes for anything more than that are slim.
Cincinnati at Tennessee
Will Levis has tallied 15+ points in four of the past five weeks. He fell short of that mark last week, but that was due in part to Levis suffering a shoulder injury in that contest. He’s healthy this week and facing an abysmal Cincinnati secondary. That matchup should give Levis 15+ points for the fifth time in six games, so consider him a good QB2 for 2QB leagues.
New England at Arizona
Rhamondre Stevenson has bounced between single and double-digit point totals over the past four weeks. That’s a subpar beginning point and the matchup against Arizona makes his start case even worse. The Cardinals have been a shutdown rush defense in recent weeks. Add it up and Stevenson probably belongs on fantasy benches this week in most leagues.
Indianapolis at Denver
Work volume hasn’t been a problem for Jonathan Taylor this season. The problem is that his work volume doesn’t turn into a strong point total on too many occasions. That was the issue in Week 11 when Taylor generated only 7.0 PPR points on 25 scrimmage plays against the Jets. The Denver defense is one of the best in the NFL right now. That’s a formula for a less than stellar point total for Taylor, so rate him as a low-end RB2 or flex option.
Buffalo at Detroit
Jared Goff has posted some strong fantasy point totals of late. This is also expected to be a high scoring game. Before putting those trends together and starting Goff, note that the Bills rush defense has been subpar or worse of late. That will motivate Dan Campbell to lean on the ground game early and often. Campbell also wants to avoid a scoreboard shootout. Those factors are enough to drive Goff’s value to the QB2 level this week.
Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Chargers
This is one of the toughest games of the week in terms of fantasy scoring projection. The Bucs defense was terrible but is playing better of late. The Chargers have a strong passing attack, but both Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey are dealing with injuries. The Tampa Bay backfield has injury issues as well, as does the Buccaneers receiving corps. Merge these elements and it’s probably a good idea to avoid relying too heavily on anyone in this game.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Russell Wilson has four games with 16+ points since his Week 7 return and posted just short of 43 combined points over the past two weeks. That may cause some to consider starting him this week but note that Wilson’s scoring level tends to vary according to matchup favorability. The Eagles defense has been a bit hit or miss of late but don’t sell this platoon short, as it is still one of the best in the league. That makes Wilson better suited for QB2 status.
Green Bay at Seattle
It’s one thing to chase the upside potential of the Packers wide receivers during a regular season matchup. It’s another to do so in a playoff game. This pass catching corps is simply too deep and uses a wide receiver by committee approach. That’s not something you want to rely on versus a strong opponent like what will be found in the playoffs, so stay away from Green Bay wideouts if you can.
Chicago at Minnesota
Many fantasy managers want to go for upside plays during the playoffs. D’Andre Swift was one of those at one time, but that isn’t the case right now. He’s scored fewer than 10 PPR points in four of the past five games. Brian Flores is also very good at putting together game plans to confuse young quarterbacks. It’s a combination that could lead to another low point total from Swift, so only start him if you don’t have another upside option to go with.
Atlanta at Las Vegas
Sincere McCormick has now been announced as the Raiders lead running back. This is one of the coolest names in the NFL right now, but Las Vegas also has Desmond Ridder under center this week. McCormick may offer some flex start value in deep leagues, but overall he is not someone to put into lineups this week.