Hello again! Here are my Week 16 fantasy football notes.

Denver at Los Angeles Chargers

Jaleel McLaughlin will not play this week. That turns the Broncos backfield from a running back by committee to a platoon with Javonte Williams and Audric Estime. That’s not enough to vault either Williams or Estime into percentage start status, but it is enough to make Williams a viable flex in most leagues and Estime a viable flex in deep leagues.

Houston at Kansas City

Fantasy managers keep waiting for Isiah Pacheco to have a breakout game. He’s not done so of yet with 19.7 PPR points over the past three weeks combined. The Texans defense has been playing very well of late and that makes this one of the toughest rush defense matchups on the board. Add it up and Pacheco belongs on benches in most leagues.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

The Baltimore defense was struggling for a while there but that is not the case today. The Ravens now rate as one of the toughest matchups both from a rush defense and pass coverage perspective. That’s not a good thing for Russell Wilson’s fantasy managers. It trends him for sit status and that’s before noting that Wilson scored only 6.3 points against Baltimore the last time these two teams played.

New York Giants at Atlanta

Don’t worry for a moment about Michael Penix Jr.’s ascension to the starting QB role impacting Bijan Robinson’s fantasy value. The Giants provide Robinson with one of the most favorable rush defense matchups on the board (just one point short of a perfect 100 matchup score). Robinson has been racking up points with Cousins under center and he’ll do the same with Penix as quarterback.

The rest of KC Joyner’s Week 16 fantasy football notes are available exclusively for Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Arizona at Carolina

Carolina’s offensive players were having an impact there for a couple of weeks, but it now looks like this platoon may have run out of gas. That’s not to say you should sit Chuba Hubbard, but Adam Thielen is a WR3/flex candidate and everyone else on this roster should be on fantasy benches this week.

Detroit at Chicago

If you are looking for a longshot start option at running back in deeper leagues, think about acquiring Craig Reynolds Jr. The Lions haven’t given up on their Super Bowl ambitions, and those are hindered if they wear Jahmyr Gibbs out with too much work in the absence of David Montgomery. Reynolds may only get 8-12 scrimmage plays, but that may be enough to make him a high floor candidate in a deep league.

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Does having Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center hinder the fantasy scoring prospects for Jerry Jeudy? It’s an important question since Jeudy has scored 14+ PPR points in four straight games.

Jeudy certainly didn’t struggle last week with DTR under center for much of the game, as Jeudy racked up 21.8 PPR points. That shows Kevin Stefanski has enough faith in DTR to throw to Jeudy often enough to keep Jeudy in all fantasy lineups this week.

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Jonathan Taylor’s goal line gaffe was just another reminder of how poorly he’s produced this year. Taylor has rushed the ball 21+ times in four of the past five weeks and yet has scored 10.1 or fewer PPR points in two of those games and maxed out at 17.3 PPR points. His work volume is enough to warrant starting him, but consider him a mid- to low-tier RB2 who might be better suited for flex duty this week.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets

Matthew Stafford is one of the toughest start-sit decisions in Week 16. He’s scored 17+ points in five of the Rams last eight games yet has scored fewer than 10 points in two games in that same span.

The Jets have made a habit of getting into high scoring games, which would lean towards Stafford being a start candidate, but New York’s coverage metrics have been getting a lot better of late. Add these trends together and Stafford’s percentage move is as a QB2 in 2QB leagues or a superflex, but he’s not a percentage play as a starter in most leagues.

Philadelphia at Washington

The Eagles answered the call from A.J. Brown and put the ball in the air a lot more last week, but the reality is they didn’t do it to placate Brown. They did it because the pass coverage matchup was much more favorable than the rush defense matchup.

That’s the case this week as well. It makes Brown and DeVonta Smith WR1 and WR2 candidates, respectively. It also suggests that Saquon Barkley, who hasn’t posted a big impact point total since Week 12, might have another relatively subpar day (at least subpar for his elite standards – don’t even consider not starting him).

Minnesota at Seattle

Prior to the Monday Night Football game against Chicago, Sam Darnold had posted four straight games with 19+ points. The Bears stopped that streak and this is a road matchup versus a tough Seattle defense, so Darnold has some challenges. The offset for this is that Justin Jefferson has one of the most favorable cornerback coverage matchups in Week 16. That should be enough to get Darnold back into the lower end of the QB1 tier this week.

New England at Buffalo

The Patriots offense isn’t one that most fantasy managers will want to trust in a fantasy semifinal playoff game. This is an exception to that rule, at least as it pertains to Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bills rush defense has been terrible of late and Stevenson has posted a double-digit PPR point total in four of the past seven games. This should make it five out of eight and land Stevenson a flex spot on most teams.

Jacksonville at Las Vegas

Brock Bowers has scored 30+ PPR points in two of the past five weeks, but he’s also scored 8.2 or fewer PPR points in the other three weeks in that span. That suggests he might be hitting the rookie wall but don’t overthink this. That 30+ PPR point potential makes him an absolute must start, especially with Aidan O’Connell’s return.

San Francisco at Miami

This is a weekly reminder that Deebo Samuel should not be put into starting lineups. The 49ers offense has been playing terrible of late (San Francisco has scored 17 or fewer points in four of its past five games) and that’s a big part of why Samuel has posted only 23.6 PPR points in that span.

Tampa Bay at Dallas

Rico Dowdle has been on an incredible pace of late, racking up 392 rushing yards in the past three weeks. That makes a start candidate but do note that the Buccaneers rush defense (and defense in general) has been playing a lot better of late. That paces Dowdle to be a RB2 or flex option this week.

New Orleans at Green Bay

Green Bay’s D/ST was an impact platoon earlier this year and has returned to that status of late with 16 points in last week’s game against Seattle. There is a concern in that New Orleans doesn’t allow many sacks, but the Packers racked up seven sacks against the Seahawks and had five sacks three weeks ago. This is platoon that is still available in 41.8 percent of ESPN leagues, so be sure to get them on the free agent wire if you don’t have an elite D/ST already lined up for Week 16.