Upset Watch is a column dedicated to the art of picking underdog winners and covers. Each week of the NFL season, we identify the teams most likely to upset the odds and win. We also pick underdogs who will cover, and provide analysis of every team and every game.

How does it work?

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit between 2017-2023.

Why underdogs?

On average, underdogs win approximately 35% of NFL games outright. These games are incredibly valuable to bettors, because the odds on an underdog winning outright are often 2x or higher what you stake, and in pick'em leagues, those games likely dictate who wins your league.

So there's money to be made, and the bar is low. For example, in week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the average odds against an underdog winning were +160. At that level, if you can get 39% of your selections right, you'd make a small profit.

Conversely, picking exclusively favorites is probably the worst thing you can do. Last season, favorites won 67% of games, which is high compared to an average year. Despite that, if you'd have picked the favorite in every game and put $100 on each (I beseech you NEVER DO THIS), you'd have lost $800 over the course of the season. In an average year, it's likely to be a loss of thousands of dollars.

Does Upset Watch pick every game?

No. Upset Watch's aim is not to get every game right, it is to pick only underdogs, and get 40%+ right.

We do, however, provide the same level of analysis for every game, but we'll usually make somewhere between 4-8 picks each week that are our 'official' selections.

How do we do it?

A lot of research, and a lot of data!

The core of Upset Watch is understanding that any team can win any game, and the best players do not always triumph each week. We aren't talent scouts trying to pick which QB is best, or which team is most likely to win because they have a better record. Those things are obvious and baked into the odds.

Instead, we're looking for which favorite is most likely to slip up. Which underdog is going to have it's proverbial day, and - to get into the more tangible elements - which teams match up better than others on a unit vs unit basis, and where favorites have a weakness against teams with - for example - a strong run defense, or a scrambling quarterback.

Or to put it another way - Tom Brady lost 25% of the games he played. I've seen him lose to Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb. Except he didn't, he lost to the Jets, Dolphins, Eagles and Cardinals respectively.

That's how Upset Watch works. Finding the edge that teams have against each other, and taking the names and logos out of the picture.

What makes Upset Watch special?

We have tens of thousands of people subscribed to Upset Watch.

The main reason is that we own our losses, publish our records each week win or lose, and we are building a community. Of course we shout about the wins, but every week I'll rue a loss, because that's the nature of the beast!

Everyone understands that this isn't a magic trick. We're not one of those people called Rich McDollars who you'll see selling one or two picks for several hundred dollars, saying they have a 29-1 record in their last 30 picks.

Those people soon disappear, and that's because they're a scam, or probably not real in the first place. Upset Watch is the opposite of that, so come join us.

How do I join the Upset Watch community

Easy - Here's how you get started

First sign up to Pickwatch Expert here (and have 25% off on me with code SMART25)
Now join our Discord - you can download this app on your phone too!
Click here to link your Pickwatch account to your Discord account
Then find me and your fellow readers in the #upset-watch channel!

Remember, it's a community. Anyone being abusive or disrupting that will be gone quicker than Tyreek Hill with child support on his tail. We don't have that problem, thankfully, and we'd like to keep it that way.

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